The war in Ukraine continues unabated with the country facing an unprecedented devastation in terms of both human casualties and material goods and infrastructure.
For its part, Russia is also facing heavy losses of military personnel, weapon systems and equipment, losing its reputation as a superpower since it cannot overwhelm Ukraine and facing severe Western sanctions that are weakening its economy.
There are many who speak of the need to end the war, while everyone realises that ending the conflict, however distant, will require an agreement, which will almost certainly not meet the rich rhetoric demands from both sides.
An agreement to end the war in Ukraine would resemble the "Cyprus problem"
International media attempts to answer this question by pointing out:
There is certainly little serious talk of an agreement. There is little doubt that there is little prospect of a deal.However, the West already has a prototype on the shelf that the UK has done a lot of planning for.
With enough willpower and imagination, and agreement on both sides to reduce aggression and let the peace brokers have their chance, it just might work.
Let's call it the "Cyprus Solution".
Cyprus after ATTILA 1974
In July 1974, following a Greek coup, the Turkish army invaded Northern Cyprus, ostensibly to defend the rights of Turkish Cypriots.
By the end of hostilities, Turkey had occupied one third of the island. The short war resulted in thousands of casualties and hundreds of thousands of refugees, and later, the resettlement of thousands of Turkish Cypriots from the south to the north.
With the support of the UN and the UK, a ceasefire was achieved.
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Κυβερνητικές πηγές: Η παρακαταθήκη του Κωνσταντίνου Φλώρου και το βαρύ φορτίο της νέας ηγεσίας των ΕΔ
Satisfied with its territorial gains, Turkey became amenable to peace talks, although for years these went nowhere.
However, Turkey has made it clear that it will remain on the island until a political settlement is reached.
In the meantime, a neutral zone under UN policing - the Green Line - was created between the Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot parts of the island and exists to this day (the UN peacekeeping force on the island remains the longest such deployed UN force).
In the following years there were various talks and negotiations, all fruitless. The main points of discussion were complex governance issues. But time was bought, discussions began, and the steam gradually blew off the conflict.
Today, visitors to Nicosia can walk from the Greek to the Turkish parts of the island with the same ease that they can walk through airport passport control. Above all, there is no longer any sense of repressed violence.
On the other hand, the different level of prosperity between the prosperous EU sectors and the less prosperous Turkish sectors is evident.
There have been 'complications'
One came in 1983 when the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus made a unilateral declaration of independence.
Another came when the Republic of Cyprus applied for membership of the European Community in 1990.
However, despite being split in two, 14 years later the Republic of Cyprus became an EU member state.
Cyprus was supposed to have joined as a united island based on Kofi Annan's UN peace plan.
This, in theory, required favourable majorities in referendums on both sides of the island, but in the end Greek Cypriots voted against reunification at 76% while Turkish Cypriots were in favour at 65%.
A crucial point is that Cyprus is not a member of NATO, although both Greece and Turkey are NATO member states.
Similarities-differences between Cyprus and Ukraine
Obviously, neither Turkey nor Greece exhibit the military disparity that Ukraine and Russia do, but there are similarities nonetheless.
Ukraine is de jure one country, but it is de facto divided and, unfortunately, is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future.
The independent status of its occupied territories is recognised only by the invader or the supporter of separatism, as Russia would prefer to be seen, in the Donbas region.
Sceptics might say that, as the Minsk agreements collapsed, such a UN-brokered version would have little chance and, as in Cyprus, there would be "complications".
The EU's decisions to grant Ukraine candidate status and to open negotiations are more than symbolic.
In addition to its 'association agreement' with the EU, Ukraine will now benefit from huge economic and institutional assistance in return for meeting up to five objectives.
These are , the rule of law, good governance, sustainability, competitiveness and regional cooperation. In other words, the country will gradually become less corrupt, more democratic, more efficient and more prosperous - attractive.
But for any of this to happen, there must be a cessation of hostilities and some kind of mediated stability.
The "Cyprus solution" could be a way forward.
The terms of the agreement to end the war in Ukraine
It would offer an incentive for talks instead of assassinations, through a UN-mediated peace settlement, UN-policed security zones and membership of the EU, but not NATO.
Ukraine would not give up its vision of a reunified country. But Russia would not give up the territories it has occupied.
Above all, the debilitating conflict would end.
Exactly what or who would broker and broker such an agreement could extend beyond the UN, to the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, perhaps, and to Turkey, which is already involved in various agreements and hosting previous negotiations, and to other countries, perhaps even the UK.
The reunification of Germany took 45 years. "Give it time to time", as the wily French President Francois Mitterrand liked to say. Whether the Russians like it or not, Ukraine is now on a path to EU membership. The other parts of Ukraine, if they remain separate, could well follow Ukraine into the EU in due course.
If politicians would put away the megaphones, the process might have a chance to breathe. Let peace descend and let the process begin.
Ending the war
In an earlier article, six (6) months earlier, we noted:
"Russia and NATO are "writing" the plan to end the war after the Ukrainian offensive, which in our estimation will have limited territorial benefits for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, whose combat power will be significantly reduced since they will have many losses in personnel and weapons systems - means.
These will result in Ukraine being at risk of losing new territory in the event of a large-scale Russian attack.
Faced with this risk, we believe that NATO, through the NATO-Ukraine Council that is being set up, will intervene and guarantee the security of the country, with Putin maintaining control over Crimea and the four Ukrainian regions he has annexed, in which he will hold elections in September.
In this way, military operations in Ukraine will be brought to an end'.
Does this whole development not resemble that of the Cyprus problem?
