Ukrainian air and sea drone (UAV-USV) attacks and Ukrainian missile attacks forced the Russians to move a significant part of their fleet from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk and Foyodosia Bay.
Under the threat of "Ukrainian" F-16s the Russian fleet is being transferred to a naval base in Abkhazia
Despite this move, it is clear that the Russian navy feels a threat, which will be made even more pronounced by the arrival of F-16s in Ukraine, which are considered certain to target the Russian Black Sea fleet.
In particular, the capabilities of Harpoon anti-ship missiles, which can be fired from the "Ukrainian" F-16s, make the scenario particularly worrying for the Russians.
So in the face of the new threat that is coming, Putin has decided to establish a naval base in Ochamchira, a town located in the Abkhazia region,which Russia has occupied from Georgia.
This move is seen as another calculated attempt to limit the impact of further Ukrainian attacks targeting the Russian Black Sea fleet.
Ochamchira will consequently be the Russian port in the Black Sea furthest from Ukraine, although the enclosed shape of that sea would be said to 'trap' the Russian fleet.
Which Russian ships "docked" in Novorossiysk
It has been observed through satellite images since October 1, that the main surface forces of the Russian Black Sea fleet, namely the two frigates "Admiral Makarov" and "Admiral Esen" have been transferred to Novorossiysk, while in the same sea area there are three submarines "Varshavyanka" and one "Buyan-M"
In simple terms, this shows that the Russian Federation has transferred its main naval vessels equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles to Krasnodar Territory, and given their launch capabilities and range, these missiles have the potential to strike Ukraine directly from the coast of Novorossiysk.
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Putin's sights set on Georgia
The Kremlin's plans have raised fears that Russia's new naval base in Abkhazia could draw Georgia into the war in Ukraine and damage Tbilisi's plans in the Black Sea.
Weeks earlier, Abkhazia's de facto leader, Aslan Bzhania, had confirmed that an agreement had been signed with the Kremlin for a permanent naval base in the Black Sea port of Ochamchire.
The status of Abkhazia
Abkhazia is internationally recognised as part of Georgia, but has been under the control of Russian and separatist forces since the 1990s.
Georgia's foreign ministry condemned Russia's plan as "a flagrant violation of Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity", although authorities in Tbilisi downplayed the importance of the permanent naval base, describing it as a non-imminent threat.
"Even if they start building the base at Ochamchire, it will take them at least three years," Nikoloz Samkharadze, head of Georgia's Foreign Relations Committee, told the BBC.
"We are focused on imminent threats and not on threats that may come in the future."
He says the government is more focused on Georgian civilians killed or abducted by Russian forces near the occupation line separating Georgia from its breakaway territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Satellite photos show Russian operations at the port of Ochamchire
BBC Newsnight and Verify have analysed satellite images indicating new dredging and construction work at the port since Russia's full invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
According to the de facto administration of Abkhazia, these dredging operations meant that Ochamchire could now accommodate larger cargo ships with a displacement of up to 13,000 tonnes.
