In many of our articles after the signing of the "Declaration of Friendship and Good Neighbourliness" between Greece and Turkey in Athens on 7 December 2023, we had stressed that Erdogan, despite the positive climate, did not step back from Turkish claims against us, while both countries avoided getting into the deep, the "hard core" of these claims.
The Greek-Turkish rapprochement and Erdogan's moves to acquire the F-16 BLOCK-70 from the US
We pointed out that this, combined with the frenetic pace of delivery of weapon systems-means and ammunition from the Turkish defense industry to the country's Armed Forces, is a major indication that the calm in Greek-Turkish relations has an expiration date.
We "saw" this coming just as Turkey was securing the purchase of 40 F-16 BLOCK-70s and 80 modernization kits for an equal number of F-16s for its Air Force, as a consequence of Sweden's acceptance of NATO membership.
Already yesterday, the Turkish Parliament voted in favour of the Scandinavian country's membership of the Alliance, taking a very important step in order to bring the curtain down on the Swedish serial.
It now remains for Erdogan to sign this decision of the Turkish Parliament in order for it to become law and for Orban's Hungary to take similar steps so that Sweden can join NATO, which we estimate will be completed on 24 February 2024, exactly 2 years after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, sending a strong message to Putin.
We are now at the last stage of the acquisition of American F-16s from Turkey, where the Biden Administration has the final say, and it is now called upon to pass the "hurdle" of the US Senate, which has so far been opposed to this sale.
We believe that the issue will be even more difficult for the Biden Administration, since the Israeli lobby is also strongly opposed to the sale of the fighter jets in question to Turkey, because of Erdogan's hostile stance against Israel in the war in the Gaza Strip, and we recall that the US presidential elections will be held in November.
In the above "Gordian knot" we estimate that Biden will probably try to bypass the US Congress if he sees that he is not getting the votes, while the agreement to give them to Turkey from a third country like Bahrain with the approval of the US government is still "in play", or even the finding of a "solution" for the EUROFIGHTERs by convincing Germany to lift its objections to the sale of these to Erdogan.
Libya in the role of a "rabbit" for Erdogan's ambitions in the SE Mediterranean - The Greek reaction
Turkey, for its part, faithful to the "Blue Homeland Doctrine", has put its straw men in the role of a hare to the Libyan Government which is attempting to restore the illegal "Turcolibian Memorandum".
As we reported in our recent article, the North African country submitted its own letter to the UN declaring a border zone, with our country reacting strongly by sending its own letter to Secretary General Guterres, denouncing the Libyan letter as being contrary to International Law and the Law of the Sea for three reasons:
α) It closes the Gulf of Sirte, a move which Greece has opposed since 1974.
b) It uses straight baselines - Greece has also opposed this since 2005 - which are also contrary to International Law.
c) The coordinates submitted by Libya follow the illegal delimitation of the 2019 Turkish-Colombian memorandum.
Greece, on this occasion, reiterates that the Turkish-Colombian Memorandum is illegal and contrary to International Law and stresses that any moves made on the basis of the coordinates it provides for are illegal.
It also points out that such moves do not prejudge the rights granted to Greece by International Law and expresses the well-known Greek position that any problems with the demarcations in the Eastern Mediterranean must be resolved peacefully, on the basis of International Law and the Law of the Sea.
Turkey's military moves - preparations for Libya and SE Mediterranean
In a recent article, we referred to the decision of the parliament of the pseudo-state in Cyprus to make the airport of Lefkovo a military base for Turkey.
Turkey can now use it both in peace and in war to serve its interests and aspirations against Cyprus and Greece in the SE Mediterranean and against Crete and the Dodecanese.
This airport is a highly advanced base for supporting Turkish aeronautical operations in the SE Mediterranean either by drones operating from it or by fighter aircraft.
Meanwhile Turkey is training 1,000 mercenaries from Syria and preparing them for Libya, and recently the Turkish Navy has added a small flotilla of 4 ships to its force, with the first Turkish frigate ISTAMBUL being among them.
Our assessment is that in the short term, we will see a strong Turkish naval force deployed south of Crete, within the alleged but illegal Libyan EEZ, combined with hydrocarbon exploration and extraction vessels.
