It is a fact that in recent months there has been calm in the Aegean Sea, a situation that will continue in the coming months, since recently Mitsotakis and Erdogan signed a "Declaration of Friendship and Good Neighborliness" in Athens.
However, there is nothing to predict that the good climate will continue, since on the one hand we have not entered the "hard core" of Turkish claims against us - where, it should be noted, Ankara's positions have not shifted even slightly - and on the other hand, the Turkish defence industry continues to deliver weapon systems-means and ammunition to its Armed Forces at a frenetic pace, constantly increasing their power.
The vast majority of these are "photographic" against Greece, and by the end of the year they plan to make their maiden flights of the TB-3 BAYRAKTAR drone, which will equip their TCG ANADOLU mini-carrier and the 5th generation KAAN fighter aircraft.
Inactive S-400s and poor Turkish air defenses "put the brakes on" Erdogan's aggression against Greece
However, Turkey still has one outstanding military weakness, which is its poor and incomplete air defenses, which it is moving rapidly to correct.
This was implicitly and explicitly stated and even recently by official Turkish lips, namely by Turkish Defence Minister Yaşar Güler who, when referring to issues that cause tensions between Turkey and the US during an annual meeting with journalists, speaking about the S-400 long-range missile system purchased from Russia, discreetly confirmed that it will be used when needed, implying that the system is not actively deployed at the moment.
He even pointed out that "This is a defence system. Aren't we going to use the defensive weapon when someone attacks us? No country launches an attack on another by stating, 'I will attack you in two hours.'"
"In a war scenario, you have to move your aircraft and carry out military mobilization ,in other words, it is very difficult for a country to launch an air strike on another without anyone noticing," Guler told reporters.
The "US-Turkish puzzle" of S-400,F-35, F-16 BLOCK-70 and Sweden's NATO membership
In 2021, the US government suspended Turkey from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter programme due to Ankara's purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system in 2017.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had previously announced that Turkey paid $1.25 billion to participate in the F-35 program. Turkey, which was part of the supply chain for F-35 production, was expected to generate $9 billion in revenue.
Moreover, the six F-35 aircraft built for Turkey were not delivered by the United States.
Turkey has paid about 2.5 billion dollars to Moscow for the first batch of S-400.
Experts estimate that Turkey has suffered a loss of $13 billion so far, taking into account the inactive state of the S-400 system.
Turkey is seeking to redirect funds originally allocated for the F-35 program toward the purchase of new F-16 fighter jets.
However, negotiations with the US lack clarity.
CONTINUE READING
Δεν ξεχνάμε! 37 χρόνια από τη δολοφονία του φαντάρου Ζήση Καραγώγου από Τούρκους στον Έβρο
The US also expects Turkey to quickly approve Sweden's NATO membership to facilitate the sale of the F-16s, adding further complexity to the negotiations. It is still uncertain whether Congress will approve these arrangements.
Russia sent two S-400 batteries and more than 120 long-range missiles as part of the deal along with experts to train Turkish soldiers on how to operate them.
The second batch has not yet been delivered.
The US has repeatedly warned Turkey that activating the S-400 missiles or buying a second batch would trigger tougher sanctions under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).
On December 14, 2020, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Turkey's Defense Industry Presidency (Savunma Sanayii Başkanlığı, SSB) and some of its key officers in connection with the S-400 procurement.
The Turkish government is concealing from the public that the S-400 system has not been activated and is also working to prevent the perception that the money spent on them was wasted. Moreover, the promised transfer of technology related to the purchase of the S-400 has not materialised.
The report of the Turkish think tank SETA in 2022 and the admission of Greek air superiority
A 2022 report published by the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA), the government-funded propaganda think tank of Turkey's ruling party, said that the diplomatic and military balance between Greece and Turkey has deteriorated to Turkey's detriment and that it would be better for Ankara to abandon the purchase of a second batch of S-400 missiles from Russia in order to achieve a delicate balance in bilateral relations.
According to SETA experts, pro-Greek lobbies in the US have been strengthened as a result of the sanctions imposed by the US on Ankara over the S-400 purchase.
The report also said that Turkey's withdrawal from the famous F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, the uncertainty surrounding the purchase of new F-16 Block 70/72 fighter jets and the inability to modernize its aging F-16 fleet have led Greece, which has invested heavily in its air force, to gain air superiority.
The "subdued" statements by Turkish Minister of Defence Youler and his predecessor Akar on the possibility of using the S-400
During the ministry's budget debates in parliament on November 17, Minister Güler expressed his frustration in response to a question from an opposition MP on the status of the S-400 system, saying: "Where do you think we will use it? Is it a washing machine? Please, you don't need to form an opinion on every issue, whether you understand it or not. When we need the S-400 system, everyone who wonders what will happen will see when we press the button."
It had previously been known that Turkey did not keep the S-400 system on active status.
The revelation that the missiles are stored at an unknown location was made in a speech by former Defense Minister Hulusi Akar during debates at the Parliament's Planning and Budget Committee on November 22, 2022.
Akar did not disclose the location where the missiles were stored, but claimed that they were ready to be deployed in case of a threat and once a decision was made on where to place the air defense system. His remarks indicated that the Turkish government has postponed plans to activate the S-400 and will not make a decision on where to deploy them soon.
He also spoke about the time needed to transfer and deploy the S-400 system, as he sought to rebut opposition accusations that the missiles were nothing more than a useless investment.
"The S-400 requires transport time for its deployment and then 30 minutes according to the manual, but I will say an hour would be ready at the location where it was sent. Everything is ready, so there is no problem," Akar said.
When asked similar questions by the same committee a year earlier, Akar cited "state secrets" and said he would not disclose details about the Russian missiles.
The indigenous long-range SIPER surface-to-air missile
Meanwhile, the then director general of the Turkish defense company Aselsan, Haluk Görgün, had said on March 16 that Turkey no longer needs Russian-made air defense systems as it is developing its indigenous long-range surface-to-air missiles ,SIPER.
At Saturday's meeting, Güler said agreements had been signed between SSB and the ministry for the production of SİPER missiles and air defense batteries .
He said that within two to three years, Turkey will be able to defend its airspace entirely with indigenous and national systems without the need for foreign anti-aircraft systems.
Turkish air defence today
At the present stage, Turkey's Turkish air defence is extremely weak and problematic, but even in the case of the realization of Turkish dreams of creating their own air defence, it will fall short of the Greek air defence.
The reports by many Turkish analysts in the past about the S-400, that they lock the Aegean and the SE Mediterranean depending on their class position, stumbles on a simple argument.
With what anti-aircraft weapons will the heart of the Turkish war industry based in Ankara, Eski Sheher and Istanbul basically be protected in case of, hypothetically speaking, a Greek-Turkish conflict, when the S-400s are deployed away from the area between these three cities?
Because it goes without saying that Turkey's first concern will be the preservation of its war industry and then the Aegean and the SE Mediterranean.
Finally, it is estimated that Turkey needs 8-10 long-range batteries, such as S-400, Patriot , or the indigenous Siper, in order to fully cover its territory, which of course does not exist today and which, as the Minister of Defense Guler openly admitted recently, will take 2-3 years from today.
Therefore until at least 2026 Turkish air defence will be incomplete and unable to counter the Greek Air Force.
Finally, in any of the cases the future creation of a single low, medium and high altitude air defense system with the indigenous Turkish HISAR A+, HISAR O+, and SIPER indigenous air defense missiles respectively is something very ambitious by the Turks but at the same time something we should be concerned about since it will increase the capabilities of the poor Turkish air defense.
