According to Sinan Sindi, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Erdogan in Vilnius "simply took advantage of a situation to his advantage."
"I don't think it's necessarily about going back to the West. It is simply a promotion of his political goals," he told the Washington Examiner.
"Its main objective at the moment is basically to acquire F-16 VIPER fighter jets and a required number of upgrade kits for Turkey's existing fleet because the Turkish Air Force is aging," he said.
The initial euphoria in NATO when Erdogan agreed to push the accession protocol for Sweden to Turkey's Grand National Assembly was tempered when Erdogan said the next day that he would wait until the parliament session in October.
"He could call the Turkish parliament back into session immediately if he wanted to," Sidi said. "But I think he's not sure that Congress is going to give in and lift its objections to the sale of F-16 VIPER aircraft to Turkey," he said.
Erdogan may have good reason to offset his interests, given that Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez has said he wants Turkey to withdraw its aggressive actions against its neighbors, especially Greece, before canceling the F-16 VIPER sale.
Sidi argued that Erdoğan should not be given too much credit for backing down on Sweden's membership, as he was "just basically doing the right thing".
If Turkey were to truly reconnect with the West, Sidi argued, it would do much more, including tougher sanctions against Russia, divestment of Russian S-400 air defense systems and US involvement in the fight against Islamic State in Syria.
But Erdogan wants to maintain relations with Russia, which is an important trading partner with Turkey, as a source of tourism and a supplier of natural gas.
"Erdogan is basically throwing an olive branch to the West, mainly because he can and simply because Putin is not necessarily in a position to do anything against him because of Prigozhin's recent rebellion," Sidi said.
“Erdogan will continue to use this position to exploit his political goals from Washington ... and he will also leverage his relationship with Russia.
He basically exploits both to the extent he can for his own material gains, or as King put it, Erdogan is a guy who deals with everyone for everything," the American expert concluded.
In an op-ed in the Kyiv Independent, freelance journalist David Kirichenkogush said the recent turn of events sent a message that Erdogan now sees Russia as “the sick man of Europe. Turkey has made it clear that it prioritizes its status as a NATO country above all else, with its commitment to the alliance taking precedence over its relations with Russia," he wrote, but this was not agreed by Sidi, who found Erdoğan to be lax about everything.
It is expected that Turkey will seek to capitalize on any gains it made in Vilnius against Greece and Cyprus.
That is why the Turks are in a hurry to seat us at the negotiating table as soon as possible.
Greece should under no circumstances sit down to a dialogue with Ankara, at a time when the well-known Turkish insanities are being heard in the Aegean, and Sweden's accession has not been ratified by the Turkish parliament.
We should not become a "gift" or "trade-off" in the Turkey-USA fight for the F-16 VIPER under any circumstances in the next period which will be long and very difficult.
