In a previous article, we referred to the statements of the Minister of Foreign Affairs Panagiotopoulos regarding the arrival time of the first F-35s in Greece, according to which the first of them will arrive in 2028.
"The political leadership of YETHA will inform the Parliament about the program that will strengthen the Greek Air Force with 5th generation aircraft, however he added that the first aircraft will arrive in about five years. "It is a complex process to produce them but also to create of the appropriate infrastructures" he added.
What will be the Greece-Turkey air balance until 2028?
Before we reach 2028, there will be 5 years and since our assessment is that the catastrophic earthquakes in Turkey will result in a period of recession in Greek-Turkish relations, but not in the abandonment by the Turks of their visions and claims in the Aegean and the SE Mediterranean, it would be good if is to see how we will maintain air supremacy in the Aegean during this period of time.
The issue initially is to smooth out the contradictions with Turkey and to return to the status of dialogue and peaceful resolution of disputes, something which we expect to take place and take effect at least until the end of 2023.
Greece has 220 combat aircraft, while it is expected that these will reach 234 with the addition of the remaining Rafales that are expected, while the modernization of 80 F-16s in the VIPER version continues.
The Turkish Air Force has 247 fighter jets, while it has submitted a request to the US for the purchase of 40 F-16 BLOCK-70 and the acquisition of 79 modernization kits for the same number of F-16s of its Air Force.
However, the US made it clear that the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO should be accepted by Turkey, in order to convince the US Congress in order to "run" the issue of the F-16 purchase.
Our assessment is that there is a very high possibility, if not a certainty, that Turkey will give the green light for the integration of the Nordic countries into NATO at the end of March and the beginning of April, at which time we will expect movement on the issue of F-16s.
Given that in such a case there will be a caretaker government in Greece due to elections and the Parliament will have been dissolved earlier, it is very interesting to see the movements of the US, i.e. they will immediately reward Turkey by speeding up the F-16 sale procedures to it or they will postpone the issue until after the elections.
However, if they do sell the F-16s to Turkey before the election, that would give Erdogan points ahead of the election, which we're not at all sure Washington wants.
In any case, we believe that either before or after the elections in Turkey, and more likely if the opposition wins, the F-16s will be given to it by the US, as long as the Nordic countries' entry block is lifted and the reason is that the US wants to control the "field" called Turkey.
On the other hand, we estimate that the war in Ukraine will end in 2023, and consequently the geostrategic role of Alexandroupoli for the USA will, without being completely reduced, be reduced, which in combination with the above will lead the USA to adopt a line of equal distances between Greece- of Turkey, on the condition that if Erdogan is re-elected, which is difficult after the earthquakes, he commits to lead his country to the West again, or as a reward for the pro-Western moves that the new government will be asked to make.
We generally believe that the US does intend to bring balance and restoration to its relations with Turkey, returning to the role of keeping equal distances in Greek-Turkish relations and once again leading the 2 countries to dialogue and coexistence, without war adventures.
Based on the above, the Greece-Turkey aviation balance will include a balance that will be reinforced by the numerical superiority of the Turks, compared to the qualitative superiority of Greece.
What will happen after 2028?
Although a forecast for after 5 years involves a high probability of risk, nevertheless according to today's data we would say that our country will acquire its 40 F-35 and Turkey will proceed with the development of the TF-X fighter aircraft, without to also rule out the case of its acquisition of some F-35 fighters.
