A big energy and geopolitical game is taking place in the Eastern Mediterranean, while everyone is watching the war in Ukraine, the banking crisis and the social upheaval in France.
The US is trying to address its huge budget debt, and its openness to Ukraine, by pushing for LNG as the sole fuel in the EU.
The crowning glory of this project is our country, as a transit region to Europe, for this reason we have a lot to see in the next period in our region.
Columbia University Report on the Eastern Mediterranean
On the subject we have a report from a major American university that explains much of what we will see in the next period.
“Any plan to supply Europe with natural gas will need to deal with the complex politics of the Eastern Mediterranean.
Regional rivalries (Greece and Turkey) and conflicts make building new pipeline connections to Europe challenging, especially combined with Europe's reluctance to commit to any new long-term fossil fuel infrastructure.
To meet European demand, companies with natural gas resources in the Eastern Mediterranean are likely to prioritize LNG options, including the use of existing LNG terminals in Egypt and the construction of new (floating) LNG units in Israel and/or Cyprus ”, it states the same.
The war in Ukraine and the interruption of the flow of Russian gas to the EU has caused a difficult and above all dangerous process in our wider maritime area.
The creation of pipelines, combined with the banking crisis (which coincidentally broke out during this time) causes huge problems in the creation of pipelines, due to the high cost and long delivery time for pipelines and liquefaction facilities.
“Amidst this crisis, one area that has emerged as a promising new source of natural gas for Europe is the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly Israel, Egypt and Cyprus.
Since 1999, exploration in deepwater basins in these three countries has resulted in the discovery of approximately 2,400 billion cubic meters (Bcm) or 80 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas resources.
In addition, exploration is ongoing and new discoveries are likely, which means that even greater volumes of gas could be available in the future," said the report by the Center for Global Energy Policy, Columbia University SIPA.
Relying on company, government and press sources, the report finds that "natural gas can make a substantial contribution to European energy security, although mainly in the medium term only given the involvement of external actors, possibly the US and/or the EU but also countries of Eastern Mediterranean.
Additional elements of the report are as follows: “In the short term, Egypt's existing liquefied natural gas (LNG) export units could make the biggest contribution, which can be maximized by measures to boost its energy efficiency and renewable energy capacity Egypt.
In the medium term, and on an aggressive schedule for field development, the Eastern Mediterranean could have a surplus of around 50 Bcm/year of natural gas production by the early 2030s.
Even more could be available if significantly more gas is discovered in Cyprus, Israel, Egypt or elsewhere in the region and if demand growth in Egypt can be contained.
How much of this surplus could be available in Europe remains to be determined."
The game of who will supply natural gas to Europe is over before it even begins, with the US taking the lion's share, which it has no intention of letting go, before other US companies start drilling in the Eastern Mediterranean, controlling all the pipelines.
What we see in the stock markets today, and what we will see in the Aegean, Libya, Cyprus and Ukraine, have an absolute relationship with who will be in charge of supplying Europe with natural gas.
