The developments in the war in Ukraine are stormy not only on the battlefield, but also inside the belligerents of Ukraine and Russia.
Prigozhin's ultimatum paid off
In our recent article we referred at length to Prigozhin's ultimatum to the Kremlin, where the leader of the Russian mercenary group Wagner said that his fighters would leave the Ukrainian city if they did not receive ammunition from Russia.
Prigozhin directly called on Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to "immediately deliver ammunition," in a quote tweeted by Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine's interior minister.
Prigozhin, a longtime ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has repeatedly made public appeals for ammunition supplies for Wagner's fighters in Ukraine.
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Φόβοι Πριγκόζιν: Η Ουκρανία θα προχωρήσει στην αντεπίθεση στα μέσα Μαΐου- Προειδοποιεί ότι αυτό θα είναι "τραγωδία" για τη Ρωσία
In February, he accused Defense Minister Shoigu and General Valery Gerasimov, who commands Moscow's forces in Ukraine, of "total treason" and attempting to "destroy" the Wagner group due to a lack of ammunition.
Prigozhin also published images of the bodies of Wagner soldiers killed in Bakhmut, attributing their deaths to "starvation of shells".
In the end, "the marble" was paid by the Deputy Minister of Defense of Russia, Mikhail Mizinchev, who was dismissed from his duties, as responsible for the lack of ammunition, which Prigozhin strongly complained about, as stated in a related article by a reputable British media outlet in defense matters, pointing out:
"While Russia's political leaders insist on claiming success on the battlefield, Russia's logistics professionals are stuck in the middle.
On April 27, 2023, social media linked to the Russian military claimed that Russia's Deputy Defense Minister, Lt. Gen. Mikhail Mizinchev, had been fired. Mikhail Mizinchev held the military logistics portfolio and had only been in the post for eight months, the British Defense Service said.
His dismissal was not immediately confirmed, but speculation about his future underscores how logistical problems remain at the heart of Russia's struggling campaign in Ukraine. Russia does not have enough ammunition to succeed in the attack.
According to the UK's Defense Intelligence Agency, the ammunition shortage is leading to infighting and infighting, mainly between the Russian Ministry of Defense and the Wagner Group.
Russia continues to give top priority to mobilizing its defense industry, but still fails to meet wartime requirements."
Internal turmoil prevails in the Russian leadership
It is known that key figures in the Russian regime are beginning to resent Putin, and a blame game has long been underway at higher levels for Moscow's failures in Ukraine.
The main targets are Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, after Wagner's mercenary leader, Putin friend Yevgeny Prigozhin, used Telegram channels repeatedly to accuse them.
Putin, his succession and nukes
From the above it can be concluded that Putin is admittedly going through the most difficult period of his administration, since he receives harsh criticism for his choices, at a time when a war has broken out between very high-ranking officials of his government, where one blames the other for the military failures in Ukraine.
The above results in the Russian President threatening to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, in the event of a Ukrainian counter-attack on the territories it recently annexed to Russian territory.
Our assessment is that the likelihood is that as long as the West stands firm against this dubious Russian threat to use tactical nuclear weapons and continues to give Ukraine the weapons it needs to repel Moscow's aggression, the Russian leadership will have no alternative from abandoning its imperial plans for Ukraine and other neighbors.
However, we should keep in mind that any removal of Putin from power may bring to power someone more extreme than the Russian President, who has less qualms about pushing the "red button".
