In a report by the military intelligence service of Bulgaria, it is stated that Russian agents are trying to destabilize the Balkans, with a clear direction in Bosnia, in which the head of the Bosnian Serbs, M. Dodik, declared autonomy again.
"On the regional aspect, Moscow's indirect efforts to create a second zone of instability in the Western Balkans, taking advantage of the existing problems and contradictions in the region, will play a destructive role.
The activity of Russian special services within the territory of some Western Balkan countries increased significantly in 2022, in an attempt to compensate for the damage caused by the expulsion of Russian diplomats from various European countries."
This is stated in the report on the activities of the Bulgarian "Military Intelligence" Service for 2022.
The Service is part of the Bulgarian Armed Forces and reports directly to the Minister of Defence.
The Bulgarian military intelligence service also reports that “there is a permanent trend of increasing cyber security risks. In the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, EU countries, including Bulgaria, have been subjected to repeated and sustained offensive cyber operations.
The use of cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure objects in combination with other hybrid techniques and hostile actions, such as the organization of large-scale information and disinformation campaigns and attempts to provoke social discontent and migration processes, sabotage and sabotage will continue in 2023. This poses a national and collective level mechanisms for a serious test of decision-making and dealing with potential aggression," the report concludes, among other things.
The Bosnian Serb leader threatens the autonomy of the Serb part of Bosnia
Milorad Dodik is again threatening separatism, but this time his plans must be taken seriously, Albanian sources say.
Milorad Dodik, president of the Serb entity in Bosnia-Herzegovina, plans to declare autonomy again from the state.
"These threats are often heard from him. But this time it is important that they listen more carefully", says an expert.
"With the escalation of the problems surrounding Kosovo, the conditions for Bosnia-Herzegovina also worsened," writes the Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung.
"Dodik is talking about holding a referendum before the end of this year," the newspaper writes and recalls that "the Bosnian Serb Parliament in 2021 has already taken the first steps on this matter.
But the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 halted Dodik's plans.
Dodik noted that the EU and the US have zero tolerance for experiments in the Western Balkans. The Serbian side's room for maneuver was very quickly reduced to zero.
"What has changed from previous times, when Dodik put the referendum back on the table?", asks the expert who emphasizes that the whole issue is a plan of Dodik in cooperation with Russia.
The conflict between Serbia and Kosovo is entering its final phase," believes expert Andres Ernst.
"The crisis in Bosnia-Herzegovina would also suit the Serbian president Aleksandar Vucic. He can once again present himself as a guarantor of stability and perhaps postpone the recognition of Kosovo again."
"The implementation of a referendum by the Bosnian Serbs would lead to war. However, it is clear that such experiments and thoughts are again enjoying some acceptance among diplomats in the West," he emphasizes.
It is not only Ukraine that is a point of friction between Russia and the USA, but also Bosnia, a "state" consisting of three ethnicities with completely different orientations.
Bosnian Serb leader M. Dodik is preparing his own plan, which involves secession with the help of Putin, and the possible help of Russian forces in Transylvania, causing concern in the Balkans.
The "fire" that will be lit in Bosnia will affect all the Balkans and we will probably see developments in Serbia as well. The danger of war spreading to the Balkan peninsula is more visible than ever.
