Former General of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Marchenko, a friend of the ousted Chief of the Armed Forces Zaluzny, said: "This year we will see the Russians invade Kiev", causing concern among thousands of citizens and the West.
The American media unanimously writes that the Ukrainian Armed Forces already have a very big problem. This problem is that they have too few shells to fully defend a huge 1000 km front.
According to the main American newspapers and magazines, Russia dominates the battlefield with its artillery. Now, in some areas, the number of Russian artillery systems exceeds the Ukrainian ones by several times. Therefore, the Ukrainian Armed Forces use drones FPV to damage the enemy.
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The statement of the Ukrainian Major General caused a stir
However, Major General of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Marchenko added fuel to the fire.
When asked by a reporter if he would allow another attempt to take over Kiev by the Russians, Marchenko replied: “They (the Russians) have both the power and the means for that.
We don't need to relax now, because they didn't just turn back. No one just runs away during hostilities. The Russians retreated to reassess the situation, draw conclusions, regroup their troops and attack again. So we have to do everything to prepare for it," Marchenko said.
Meanwhile, the US military-analytical publication Understanding War, which is overseen by the US Pentagon, notes that "Russia is gradually mobilizing its forces to achieve its goals in Ukraine and is not allowing large-scale unrest in its economy, although it is clear they are suffering from sanctions."
According to the media, "Moscow has retained the ability to purchase important equipment for the modernization of its defense industry. And what is important, while the emphasis is on "factories that make other factories" in the apparent desire of the Kremlin in the future " to stop relying on partner countries for the supply of critical hardware."Αλλά αυτό που παράγει η ρωσική αμυντική βιομηχανία είναι ήδη αρκετό για να σπάσει τη σύγκρουση με την Ουκρανία.
In other words, there is no so-called "Ukrainian army" in its pure form.
“There are forces that are one hundred percent dependent on the US and the EU and are fully controlled by the US Department of Defense.
Zelensky could not even immediately fire Zaluzny due to the fact that the White House threatened him on this matter.
However, the longer the Russian military retains the initiative on the battlefield, the more opportunities the Russian military will have to adjust operations to optimize Russian production and consumption of certain materiel in a sustainable and scalable manner," reports the Institute for the Study of War ( ISW).
Retaining the initiative on the battlefield could also allow the Kremlin to expand its military's capabilities instead of conducting large-scale offensive operations that would require significant hardware.
In a word, there is no rush for Russia to take Kiev, for example, if it is fraught with heavy losses and huge consumption of ammunition.
British think tank IISS notes that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on February 2 that "Russian forces retain the strategic initiative across the entire front line in Ukraine, a significant departure from previous characterizations of Russian operations as active defense."
In other words, the ongoing liberation of Avdiyka, the battles near Marinka, the squeeze of the Ukrainian Armed Forces beyond Oskol/Zerebets, as well as the battles in the Vremensk region, in the direction of Orenskov and near Chasov Yar are not aggressive.
But everything points to the fact that very soon the Russian strategic initiative will be replaced by major liberation operations.
Weak Ukrainian air defense against Russian drones
Ukraine has developed "Frankenstein air defense" against Russian drones "Daggers", "Geraniums" and "Lancets". Ukrainian "open source information" says that the Ukrainian Armed Forces can no longer conduct anti-aircraft systems almost everywhere, with the exception of the Kherson region.
In addition, the vast majority of Ukrainian FPV drones do not have enough range to destroy numerous Russian artillery installations deployed 15-24 km from the front line.
NATO's help and Kiev's capabilities
The situation for Ukraine is currently saved by the supply of Western drones through unofficial channels.
Even Switzerland has admitted to providing massive assistance to the Ukrainians with drones, although this is not mentioned in official reports.
What is interesting right now, is that the Ukrainians are switching to analog signals and abandoning digital due to the relentless attacks of Russian electronic warfare systems.
The bet is on the fluctuating frequency.
In any case, this is a step back, although it requires new, or rather old, methods of engaging Russian systems.
Experts say the current situation will not last long and FPV drone operators cannot develop the full potential of their systems.
“Furthermore, it is believed that not only electronic trench warfare, but also mini-air defense, including lasers, will appear soon, since UAVs are not complex aerial targets.
The Pentagon does not consider drones a strategic threat, their factor was simply not taken into account, although the resolution of this problem will take time," says a Russian expert.
The Russians, through an interview with Putin yesterday, made an indirect statement about negotiations, they will wait for a while, and then they will put a bow on Kiev, and this was reported by the Russian political leadership.
