A military confrontation is judged by many parameters, one of the most important of which is the possibility and especially the time to replenish weapon systems-means and personnel lost by the belligerents on the battlefield.
Regarding the replenishment of weapons systems and means, the main reason is the defense industry of the warring country and their supplies from allied countries.
The sanctions imposed by the West on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine appear to have affected its defense industry capacity initially, but now it would be said that it has found a way out of its problems.
The Russian war industry produces and sends to the war in Ukraine three (3) tanks a day!
This is at least the case for Russian tank production, since according to Bulgarian International Media, "Russia produces at least three tanks a day for the front line", noting:
"From the vast expanses of the Russian tank manufacturing industry, the battlefield in Ukraine receives a daily supply of up to three tanks. You may be wondering, why is this happening?
The interesting answer lies in the staggering number of tanks destroyed on the battlefield.
This cycle of destruction and replacement maintains an incredibly balanced pace, with only a slight tilt towards destroyed Russian tanks.
Russian tank losses in the last quarter
Let's delve into some British intelligence data that has estimated Russia's losses at 365 tanks from early October to January 25 this year.
If you were to count the number of days within that period, as I have done, you would come to a total of 117 days.
Dividing the total loss by 117, we arrive at an alarming average of 3.2 tanks lost by Russia each day.
The exact information shared by London is that "Russia can probably produce at least 100 main battle tanks (MBTs) per month and therefore retains the ability to replace losses on the battlefield and continue this level of offensive activity for the foreseeable future." .
According to the UK Ministry of Defence, intelligence analyzes are systematically constructed.
Whether they provide an explanation for an event that has already occurred or offer predictive estimates of possible future events, prediction.
These analysts use a standardized probability template to ensure clear and consistent communication with each other and with the public. This practice ensures that everyone understands the potential accuracy of their explanations or predictions.
Hiding Ukrainian losses
Understandably, neither UK Defense Intelligence nor Ukraine's intelligence services disclose their military casualties. Instead, this information is often revealed through Russia's regular updates.
Even without data from Russia, it is reasonable to conclude that Ukraine, due to its lack of numerical strength relative to Russia, will therefore suffer fewer casualties.
However, the fact that Russia has the ability, both now and in the future, to replace its lost tanks leaves Ukraine at a disadvantage.
This situation occurs regardless of the greater number of Russian tanks destroyed and is primarily due to Ukraine's insufficient ability to sustain similar losses. Meanwhile, the West and the US, while not completely withdrawing their support for Ukraine, are reviewing the extent of their aid.
Business Insider summarizes this situation by stating: "Faltering Western support for Ukraine means Russia has the upper hand."
Russia's economic rise is slowing
Reports from the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies [WIIW] suggest that Russia's economic boom, largely fueled by its arms sector, is slowing.
Research shows that the economy is reaching its limits, as evidenced by notable pressures.
WIIW, which specializes in Eastern European economics, reported a commendable 3.5 percent rise for Russia's economy last year. However, they forecast this impressive growth to slow to a modest 1.5% this year due to inflation and a significant rise in key interest rates to 16%.
Vasily Astrov, WIIW's Russia expert, points to the increasing cost of the war to the Russian economy, which accounts for nearly 29% of the country's federal budget this year.
The WIIW also predicts a decline in economic growth for Ukraine. Ukraine, which is already facing aggressive actions by Russia, is expected to face a further decline in its economic growth, falling by 1.2 percentage points. The institute also expresses concerns about the fiscal support Ukraine could receive from the West, as the possible re-election of Donald Trump could create further uncertainties.
Complicated and difficult to replenish "Ukrainian" tanks
While Russia does not face issues related to tank stocks and their replacement, the situation in Ukraine is significantly more serious and complex.
In the early days of January, it was found that the repair of the German Leopard tanks proved to be a very difficult task, mainly due to the lack of necessary spare parts.
In addition, the process of evacuating a tank from the battlefield, transporting it to a neighboring country for repair, and then returning it back to Ukraine is indeed time-consuming.
German reports suggest that the Ukrainian military is taking a hands-on approach by trying to undertake repairs to the damaged Leopards themselves – a logical step considering it is an attempt to cut repair timetables.
However, the repairs carried out by the Ukrainians do not seem to reactivate these tanks.
According to information from German experts, the Ukrainian repairs not only fail to restore the operational readiness of the tanks, but also cause even more technical issues, which require additional repair sessions.
US-Hungary backslide on support for Ukraine
An unexpected political setback came from Washington regarding their support for Ukraine. In 2022, the consequences extend to a ban on any repair of US weapons already delivered to Ukraine.
Interestingly, the waves of resistance are not limited to Washington. They have spread to the heart of Europe, specifically Hungary. Budapest, in a surprise move, has blocked a planned $52 billion in aid to Ukraine. It is worth noting that Hungary is not alone. There are a significant number of European nations that are currently refraining from extending their support to Ukraine."
Ukraine is in dire straits
From the above we understand that the tide is tilting in favor of Putin in the war in Ukraine, in anticipation of a large-scale Russian attack around February 24, 2024.
Our assessment is that the only way out for Zelensky to save as much of his country's territory from the Russians as possible is the rapid accession of his country to NATO combined with the signing of an end to the war with Russia.
