The war in Ukraine is not going well at all for Zelensky's Armed Forces, as the Russians are advancing, breaking through their defence positions one by one.
However, Ukraine was banking on acquiring F-16s from NATO countries in order to even the air power balance with Russia, which does not seem to be materializing, as Yuriy Ignat, a spokesman for the Air Force Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, noted that Ukraine is currently not ready to host F-16 fighters, even if they are provided by European nations.
Ukraine does not have the infrastructure and pilots for the immediate operation of F-16 fighters
According to statements hosted by a reputable Bulgarian media outlet, "The country currently lacks the necessary infrastructure and qualified pilots to operate these aircraft.
As Ignat said during his appearance on the Rada TV channel, many European leaders have shown willingness to transfer these planes to Ukraine. However, at the moment it is not a feasible solution for the country.
Ignat said that apart from the obvious requirement of the aircraft, there is also a need for compatible infrastructure that can support the F-16s. In addition, the shortage of pilots trained to fly these planes complicates the issue. "It's not a simple matter of having aircraft. We are talking about weapons systems that require a suitable environment, equipped airfields and specially trained pilots," he said.
While there is ongoing speculation about when Ukraine could acquire Western aircraft, Ignat did not set a specific timeline.
The Danish Ministry of Defense expressed a similar view, clarifying that aircraft delivery would largely depend on the readiness of Ukrainian pilots and the establishment of sufficient logistics and infrastructure for aircraft maintenance in Ukraine.
US: "By the end of summer 2024, Ukrainian pilots will be ready"
According to a US press report, citing a senior US military official at the Pentagon, Ukrainian pilots are not currently ready to engage in F-16 operations.
They are training and, according to estimates by U.S. military officials, more Ukrainian pilots could be ready to operate the aircraft until the end of summer 2024.
Countries such as Denmark and Belgium have expressed strong support for training Ukrainian pilots using their F-16s. Training centers in Denmark consistently use these aircraft, and F-16s procured from Belgium will soon join the program, enhancing the training experience for Ukrainian pilots.
Sources from Denmark, the UK and other Western nations revealed that six pilots from the Ukrainian Air Force are currently gaining practical experience with F-16s in Danish airspace.
In addition, about a dozen more pilots are undergoing 'dry' training in the UK, which begins with learning English, a critical language for their upcoming missions.
Barometer for the delivery of the F-35 from the US to Belgium and Denmark
Like Belgium, Denmark is awaiting the arrival of its new F-35 fleet, built by Lockheed Martin. Unfortunately, the complicated integration phase in the United States has led to delays in delivery and the fleet will not arrive as originally planned.
The ultimate goal is to replace the aging Danish and Belgian F-16 fleet with these next-generation American fighters.
A Ukrainian Air Defense spokesman recently expressed uncertainty about the timelines for the delivery of the F-16s, stating: "I cannot confirm when Ukraine will receive its first batch of F-16s."
Outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said the country plans to supply Ukraine with an initial fleet of 18 F-16 fighter jets. However, Rutte clarified that certain conditions must be met for this exchange to take place."
Ways to safely deploy F-16s to Ukraine
Of course, it should be taken for granted that Russia will attempt with swarms of drones and massive use of surface-to-surface, air-to-ground and even sea-to-ground missiles to hit the Ukrainian airfields that will host the F-16s, destroying them.
The provision of strong anti-aircraft protection on the part of Ukrainian air defenses should be taken for granted with regard to the F-16 deployment airfields, but we believe that this alone will not be sufficient to defend them for a sufficient period of time.
So the question arises, where and how will the Ukrainian F-16s be safely accommodated?
The answer is complex in our estimation and therefore we suggest the following:
1. The delivery of F-16s to Ukraine from Western countries should be continuous but always in small numbers of 2 to 4 aircraft, from a different country each time, without a fixed "pattern" and timetable.
For example, the parachuting by the Ukrainians of 2 F-16 fighters today from Denmark and 4 fighters tomorrow from the Netherlands and so on, would result in the non-concentration of a significant force of aircraft , in order to be targeted and destroyed by Russia, since their small numbers and their dispersion at airports and on highways would be conducive to this, allowing them to escape after early warning.
2. Providing them with aerial refueling at the border with a NATO member country would increase their survivability and operational utilization regardless of Russia's attack on Ukrainian airfields.
3. The creation and dispatch of F-16 look-alikes to Ukraine, as well as an extensive decoy plan to install them at many points on Ukrainian highways, would confuse the Russians and effectively protect the real F-16s parked among them.
4. And to carry out a major decisive strike against important Russian targets, such as the Black Sea Fleet, a significant number of F-16s, even a squadron, could arrive unannounced in Ukraine at the same time from a NATO country bordering it, following the touch-and-go tactic on a Ukrainian highway or airport, so that it would be assumed that they were operating from Ukrainian territory and not from the NATO country where they took off and an immediate attack would be launched.
Taking the Russians by surprise would be all too likely, as they would be used to the pattern of 2-4 F16s at a time being delivered from Western countries.
These could then be returned to the neighbouring country, with Ukraine releasing images of the destruction of virtual F-16s that allegedly crashed on their return from the operation, contradicting Russian reactions.
5. Finally, it is necessary to have both a number of Ukrainian F-16s in the air at all times and NATO early warning aircraft flying in Poland-Romania-Slovakia, near their border with Ukraine, in order to provide early warning of an imminent large-scale Russian attack.
