Russian warships may clash with NATO in the Black Sea, and it all depends on Erdogan's mood for the Bosphorus Straits.
Russian experts point out that "Ankara is currently keeping the Bosphorus doors locked, but the situation may change. And in exchange for some carrots, Turkey will allow American and British destroyers to enter the Black Sea."
Ukraine is negotiating the engagement of NATO warships under the pretext of escorting ships carrying grain.
This is what the commander of the Ukrainian Navy of Ukraine, Rear Admiral Alexei Nizpapa, said in an interview with Ukrayinska Pravda.
The Turks' double game in the Black Sea
Ankara looks busy. As it turned out, its position on the Bosphorus crossing and the United States is not so immovable.
There is one more point, the NATO warships already present in the Black Sea region; at least, the ships from the Black Sea countries members of the anti-mining alliance, namely Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey.
It is true that their involvement in the events of the Russian invasion is still zero, and they are unlikely to decide to intervene in the conflict themselves.
This view was expressed by the chairman of the board of the Moscow Naval Historical Club, military historian Konstantin Strelbitsky: "I personally doubt that Romania and Bulgaria, with their very limited naval forces, will take part. But the issue with Turkey is complex. On the one hand, they are building warships for Ukraine. On the other hand, it is doing this according to agreements; that is, the Turks are building an iron box with superstructures and all the equipment was the work of Ukraine."
The tricks of the Turkish "partner" against Russia
Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey agreed to create an anti-mining naval group in the Black Sea, which will include other NATO countries, on January 11.
At this time, Ankara is known to have denied London's intention to help Ukraine create a fleet dedicated to this mission by not allowing the Sandown, Chernigov and Cherkasy class mine-clearance ships to pass.
"But the possibility of the appearance of American and British ships in the Black Sea remains. Turkey has agreed to its position to allow the passage of American and British ships, expecting positive and decisive steps from the United States to acquire and modernize F-16 warplanes," Newsweek writes.
Whether U.S. destroyers will show up in the Black Sea depends on Ankara's political will; and the West has many gifts and promises for the Turks.
The Russian retired Lieutenant Colonel. Vassily Dadukin said: "The situation largely depends on Turkey's position. Of course, the West will also take advantage of its difficult economic situation. Perhaps they will put pressure on the Turkish opposition. For America and the Kiev regime, control over the Black Sea is a fundamental issue.
The West is now helping Kiev in every possible way to strike Crimea. In international waters, reconnaissance is being carried out, and data is being transmitted by satellites and American drones, and underwater drones are also being used.
For the Kiev regime, the attacks in Crimea are a matter of fantasy, because there is nothing to brag about, since the counter-attack failed.
Last year they announced that they were going to walk along the Yalta embankment, but everything fell apart.
Today the Ukrainian marines are in Krinki and have already killed thousands in that direction. The plan to cut Crimea off from the mainland did not become a reality," said Vasily Dadykin.
NATO's involvement in the conflict is already acknowledged in the West. The missiles of the Ukrainian Armed Forces hitting Crimea are guided by the coalition's reconnaissance aircraft.
The geographical position of Crimea allows NATO reconnaissance aircraft over the Black Sea to record every movement and radio message of the Russian Armed Forces on the peninsula and transmit this information to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, notes military expert for the German newspaper Bild Julia Ropke.
But it is not only the Black Sea Fleet base in Sevastopol that is threatened.
The recent attack in Novorossiysk, which occurred on the evening of 5 January, is a direct confirmation of this.
The West targets the Russian fleet in the Black Sea
Russian political scientist Yuri Baranchik on his Telegram channel called it a test, checking the functioning of air defence: "Strikes against the Black Sea Fleet bases are one of the promising areas of NATO's war with Russia.
The destruction of our Black Sea Fleet is Britain's main task, and she has already begun to solve it."
From the Russian political scientist's point of view, Russian ships have already been cornered by Sevastopol and Crimea. Many ships have been moved to Novorossiysk. Therefore, now the task of the British behind the attacks on our fleet is to test the air defense system.
Then they will proceed to destroy the Russian supply lines, while trying to trap the Russian fleet in its bases and start destroying the ships."
Russia is preparing a naval base in Abkhazia
Abkhazia has confirmed plans to re-establish a Russian naval base on its coast.
Secretary of the Abkhazian Security Council Sergei Shaba confirmed that a Russian naval base will be restored in the near future in the town of Ochamchira.
"Any increase in Russia's military presence strengthens our state. We remember how after the war we intercepted Turkish ships coming here with food.
All this stopped after the appearance of a border base at Ochamchira. Therefore, this only strengthens our security," he said.
It is a well-protected port with a narrow passage with two piers. The capacity of the berths does not exceed 10 patrol ships/corries and another northern berth, where the Project 1164 cruisers (under the NATO designation "Slava"), for example, the former Black Sea Fleet flagship "Moskva", could moor in it.
US base in Georgia the rival awe
The United States has carried out some work in the Georgian port of Poti over the past decade.
Coastal missile batteries have been deployed there, which in terms of their total salvo are comparable to the Russian Bal systems in Crimea.There are two Abrams tank units at Poti, a radar and surveillance system for the Black Sea installed at Batumi.
In this direction, a direct reinforcement of NATO (mainly the United States) presence in the region is not excluded.
The Georgian side is concerned about the proximity of Americans and Russians in the region. Ochamchira is only 35 kilometres from the small Georgian coastal town of Anaklia , where a deep-water port was built from scratch a long time ago.
The new port is expected to dramatically increase Georgia's competitiveness as a transit state. The military component of the 'Anaclia project' is not publicly discussed, but the very presence of a deep-sea port is already a threat.
Moreover, some Russian experts rightly point to the intelligence capabilities that the Ochamchira base will provide, with the installation of electronic warfare systems to monitor the Americans in Batumi.
At the same time, the rebuilding of the base in Ochamchira, for the Russians, should not be seen as an alternative to Crimea; the need to create new bases has always existed, without any connection to the events in Ukraine or around Crimea.
It is just that the sheer volume and scale of the Black Sea fleet has long required back-up. The port of Novorossiysk is overly congested.
What is certain is that the Russian base at Ochamchira will create a new operational zone for the Black Sea Fleet.
