The multiple successes of the Russian army in Ukraine in the last period of time have caused a feeling of fear and panic in Sweden, which is waiting for Turkey's approval to join NATO, with the Minister of Civil Defence and the Scandinavian country's Deputy Chief of Defence warning the citizens of their country with statements about the possibility of extending the war in Sweden.
Sweden's Deputy Chief of Defence Staff to civilians: "Prepare for war"
According to international media, both the Minister of Civil Defence Carl-Oskar Bohlin and the Military Commander General Micael Byden in their messages have raised concerns among Swedish citizens about an imminent military confrontation..
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Sweden has been shocked by unusual and alarming statements by senior defence officials urging citizens to prepare themselves mentally for the prospect of war.
According to a BBC report, Bohlin told a defence conference "there could be war in Sweden". This cautionary note was then echoed by General Micael Byden, who stressed the need for all Swedes to prepare for conflict.
Political reactions
Opposition politicians, including former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, have objected to the tone of these warnings.
While acknowledging the seriousness of the security situation, Andersson argued that "it's not as if war is just outside the door." The contradictory language used by defense officials has sparked a debate over the appropriateness of such dire warnings.
Impact on civilians
Concerns have been raised about the psychological impact of these statements on the public, particularly the younger generation.
The children's rights organisation Bris reported an unusual increase in calls from young people expressing concern about the possibility of war.
Critics argue that officials should have provided information tailored for different age groups when issuing such alarming statements.
The Defence of Sweden
Sweden, after more than two centuries of peace, is on the verge of joining the NATO defense alliance.
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Ζοφερό μέλλον ενόψει! Το 2024 αναμένεται να σημειωθεί το μεγαλύτερο οικονομικό κραχ στην ιστορία
Approval by the Turkish parliament and the consent of Hungary could mark a significant change in Sweden's defence posture.
The warnings by the civil defence minister and the military chief are seen as a call to action amid evolving geopolitical dynamics.
Preparing for war
General Biden clarified that his intention was not to cause panic but to encourage people to reflect on their situations and their responsibilities.
The backdrop includes Swedish participation in training Ukrainian pilots and a possible contribution of advanced Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine.
Finland, already a NATO member, and escalating tensions with Russia add layers of complexity to Sweden's readiness.
During the defense conference, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on Sweden to cooperate in building weapons and strengthening the collective force.
Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has pledged that by 2024, Sweden will meet the NATO target of spending 2% of economic output on military defence, doubling its spending by 2020.
What do the experts say?
Defence experts have weighed in on the above, describing the warnings as a wake-up call.
Oscar Jonsson of the Swedish Defence University noted that the majority of the concerns stem from frustration over perceived slow progress in building civilian and military defence capabilities.
Although he acknowledged the capability of the Swedish armed forces, he emphasized the need for increased scale and urgency in defense preparations.
Among the warnings, the experts reportedly stressed that several factors, including the end of Russia's war in Ukraine, Europe's military reconstruction and posture, and U.S. military support, play critical roles in assessing the actual likelihood of war.
The situation underscores the delicate balance Sweden is striking as it prepares to join NATO and adjusts to evolving geopolitical dynamics.
As Sweden grapples with unprecedented warnings and debates the appropriateness of such declarations, the nation finds itself at a critical juncture, examining defence alliances, preparedness strategies and the potential implications of a change in its historically peaceful posture.
It is not only Sweden but all of Europe that should be concerned
From the above we understand that in Sweden the alarm bells are being sounded about an imminent military confrontation with Russia by the Deputy Chief of Defence Staff and the Minister of Civil Defence, not because, in our estimation, this is likely to occur in the near future, but in order to change the mindset of the country's citizens in particular, as defence requirements increase due to the country's imminent accession to NATO, accompanied by an increase in defence spending.
However, 2024 is always in our estimation a very important year for the security not only of Sweden vis-à-vis Russia, but of the whole of Europe, as the outcome of the war in Ukraine will be largely decided, as will the governance of the US due to presidential elections.
Therefore, a Russian victory in Ukraine with the seizure of additional territory and major cities, combined with a Trump victory in the US elections - which would imply a further shrinking of US aid to Ukraine - would signal not only Putin's seizure of the latter, but also a general upheaval in Europe, which would then have to face the Russian threat alone, without substantial help from the other side of the Atlantic.
