The war in Ukraine continues with unabated intensity, going through a very critical phase in which the Russian Armed Forces have taken the upper hand, scoring some important victories on the ground.
The Russian army is recording victories in Ukraine
This has had the effect of boosting the morale and aggression of Putin, who is beginning to hope that through a possible Ukrainian defeat he will teach the West a good lesson.
On the other hand, for the US-NATO, a Ukrainian defeat would have very negative results, which is why they are backing Zelensky.
Russia is waging "total war" with its industrial power entirely focused on weapons production to the exclusion of almost everything else.
Ukraine, for its part, will very soon be getting F16 fighter jets, which will tip the balance of war in its favour if Western ammunition keeps flowing and Western politicians remain sufficiently focused before their thoughts turn to their own re-elections later this year.
Ukraine has overwhelmed the Russian Black Sea fleet
The area where Ukraine has been strikingly effective is the sea battle in the Black Sea.
Here, a country without an effective navy before the war, has achieved significant blows against the powerful Russian Black Sea fleet, which has had the effect of moving it even further east without affecting the development of land attacks.
This has been achieved through Ukrainian ingenuity with maritime drones and Western long-range precision guided missiles such as the UK's Storm Shadow.
NATO-Ukraine plan to take Crimea
To break the stalemate in the ground war, Ukrainian forces need to get behind the massive Russian defence lines.
This will most likely be achieved through land operations, with the newly British-trained, Ukrainian marines , moving behind enemy lines on the Crimean peninsula.
To do this, not only will air cover from F16s be required, but also maritime forces for Marine action.
Turkey is a stumbling block.
Therefore, Turkey's decision not to allow British minesweepers and landing craft to enter the Black Sea and Ukraine through the "Straits" is deeply worrying and disappointing.
Turkish President Erdogan seems to relish the mediating role between Ukraine and Russia, but also seems to sometimes forget that Turkey is a full member of NATO and enjoys the protection of the Alliance that comes with it.
If Ukraine fails to defeat the Russian hordes, according to the Polish Armed Forces Chief, NATO will be at war with Russia within three years.
Erdogan may not agree, but with Russia seemingly fueling the conflict in the Middle East, there are not many other routes besides the one through Turkey that link them together.
Turkey will not escape Putin's "teeth" in the event of a Russia-NATO war
NATO, after Finland and Sweden's imminent accession to its ranks, has been significantly strengthened in the north, while Turkey is showing a dangerous and potentially tempting soft stance towards Russia on the southern side of the Alliance with its ambiguous stance.
Erdogan is deluded if he thinks he will be spared Putin's direct attack on his country as the route from the Black Sea via the Bosphorus to the Mediterranean will become vital for Russia after the end of the war in case of its victory in Ukraine.
The world may be focused on the terrible conflict in the Middle East, but this is very unlikely to affect NATO's security in the long term.
However, the conflict in Ukraine has the potential to bring NATO into a direct battle with Russia, which Turkey will not be able to avoid by remaining neutral, and NATO leaders must ensure that Turkey's President understands this before it is too late.
