It seems that this is the second Russian siege of the Ukrainian city of Ugledar during the war. The Russians appear to have moved north of the city in an attempt to surround it.
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After Mariinka Go to Ugledar
More specifically, and according to a new article on the Russian defence website SvPressa, there has been a leak of data from the inner circle of Ukrainian commander Valery Zaluzhny, a leak which reveals that the advance of Russian troops in the direction of Marinka-Georgievka has given the Russians the opportunity to attack Ukrainian positions in the Novomikhailovka region from the north. This is exactly the situation unfolding now, the page says.
At the same time, the Russian troop group Vostok is trying to break through the Ukrainian defence lines from Stepovoe and Sladkoe in the Mariinsky region, again with the ultimate aim of reaching the Novomichailovka settlement, but this time from the south and southeast.
Ukrainian Telegram channels predict that in all likelihood in the near future the Russian army will launch an attack on the positions of the Ukrainian armed forces along the general direction Pomeda-Constantinovka, along the Mariynka-Ugledar road.
"In general terms, the main objective of the Russian armed forces (at the operational level) in the region south and southwest of Donetsk is the complete neutralisation of the Ukrainian bridgehead in Volnovaka, a bridgehead which threatens Mariupol. In this light, the Russians are persisting with attacks in the Mariynka region, as well as in the Sevchenkovo and Pavlova regions," writes a military expert.
According to him, the Ukrainian General Staff is aware that the Russian military command is creating favorable conditions for the repetition of the Bakhmut and Avdiivka scenarios in the Ugledar region. For this reason the Russians are advancing in the lateral directions, i.e. to encircle the main beachhead (the defensive line) of the Ukrainian armed forces in the region.
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We should also note that the Russians have taken over the settlement of Pavlova, gaining a tactical advantage in the Ugledar region, which has already helped them to repel a Ukrainian attack on Ugledar. The Pavlova settlement is located at a tactical altitude, which is why it gives a tactical advantage to whoever holds it.
SvPressa concludes by stressing that although the Ukrainian army is fully aware of Russian military plans, it has neither the necessary forces nor the necessary reserves to repel the imminent attack by the Russian army on the Ukrainian outpost of Volnovaka.
