The absence of decent results from Kiev's month-long counter-offensive on the southern fronts forced the Ukrainian army to attempt to cross the Dnieper River in the Kherson region.
Recent Ukrainian attempts to launch massive attacks on the flanks in the Rabotino region have been repulsed. In response, the Russian army launched counter-attacks north of the Verbovoe, Kopani and Novoprokopovka regions. Heavy artillery duels, mutual drone attacks and air strikes continue.
Apparently, the Ukrainian military command was planning to launch an attack in the direction of Kherson after the gains on the Zaporozhye fronts. If the Ukrainian forces could advance as far as Tokmak, the opening of the second front and the attack from the west should break the Russian grouping and allow the Ukrainian army to reach the Crimean peninsula. To this end, the Ukrainian army blew up the Kakhovka dam, which led to a regional disaster, the death of dozens of civilians and the devastation of the Dnieper River bed. However, the Ukrainian administration's plans were never to be realised. The Ukrainian army did not achieve any success in its counter-attack and the Russian army is still holding the defence on the eastern bank of the Dnieper, destroying Ukrainian groups moving in the area.
On 18 October, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that the Ukrainians had launched "another long-announced and expected counter-offensive in the direction of the Kherson. There are casualties - there is no result."
On the same day, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that the activities of 4 Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups were suppressed near the Ponchtepnoe and Poima districts in the Kherson region.
The Ukrainian army tried to gain footholds on the east coast near Pestanova. After advancing towards the villages, they came under massive artillery fire. As a result of the battle, the surviving Ukrainian soldiers were forced to retreat back to the river near the railway bridge, calling for evacuation. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces on the west bank were also covered by Russian fire, reportedly including from the Iskander missile system. As a result of another failed operation, the Ukrainian army lost about 70 soldiers. The coastline was littered with the bodies of dead Ukrainian soldiers.
According to reports from the front, some remnants of the Ukrainian group managed to hide on the coast and will try to become a springboard for further Ukrainian attacks.
The Kiev authorities are silent on the situation in the Kherson region. At the same time, the Ukrainian military acknowledges the intensification of Russian strikes on the west bank of the Dnieper River in recent times. The Russian strikes are destroying the places of accumulation of Ukrainian groups aimed at imposing the Dnieper.
Despite heavy losses in manpower, the Ukrainian army continues to increase efforts in the direction of Kherson.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based think tank, Russian sources continued to discuss larger-than-usual Ukrainian ground operations on the eastern (left) bank of the Kherson region on 19 October, and Ukrainian forces are likely to maintain a limited presence in some areas of the east bank near the Dnieper River shoreline and the Antonovsky railway bridge.
The prominent Russian military blogger who initiated the Russian discussion of Ukrainian attacks on the east bank on October 18 claimed on October 19 that two Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance teams of a Ukrainian naval infantry brigade had crossed the river, outflanked Russian troops in the area and gained a foothold in the village of Krinki (30 km east of the town of Kherson and about 2 km inland from the Dnieper River shoreline). He claimed that Russian infantry had counterattacked and pushed Ukrainian forces back towards the outskirts of the village, but noted that Ukrainian troops still controlled some houses in Krinki and were awaiting the arrival of reinforcements in the area. Another Russian blogger claimed that Ukrainian forces used more manpower in the attacks in Krinki than in previous attacks.
The Ukrainian General Staff also mostly tacitly acknowledged Ukrainian operations in the east bank and reported on 19 October that Russian airstrikes hit Pestanivka, implying that Ukrainian forces were operating in the town.
While Russian sources continue to offer slightly divergent statements regarding the scale of Ukrainian attacks on the east bank, ISW continues to assess that current Ukrainian actions appear to be larger than the tactical raids previously observed, and available geo-located material indicates that Ukrainian forces maintain a presence along the coastline and near the Antonovsky railway bridge despite Russian counterattacks.
