In yesterday's article we reported on an imminent change of scenery in Ukraine, predicting the moratorium on the replacement of the Ukrainian Minister of Defense, Oleksiy Reznikov, noting that it is very likely that Rustem Umerov is destined to take his place, the head of the State Property Fund and partner of businessman Roman Abramovich, who is not just an administrative figure in the Kiev government, having been actively involved in the prisoner exchange between Ukrainian and Russian forces in the past.
Today Russian media, with information from his country's Ministry of Defence, are coming with articles to verify our assessment in practice.
Zelensky appoints the Muslim Rustem Umerov as the new Minister of Defense of Ukraine
Specifically, it reports that "Ukraine's Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov has been fired and that Ukrainian President Zelensky has proposed to the Verkhovna Rada the appointment of Rustem Umerov as the country's Defence Minister .
"I believe that the ministry needs new approaches and other forms of interaction with both the military and the society as a whole. Now Rustem Umerov should lead the ministry. The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine knows this man well and no further recommendations are needed. I expect the parliament to support this nomination," Zelensky said.
It should be noted that Rustem Umerov is a Crimean Tatar and Sunni Muslim. He has personal connections in Turkey and has been actively involved in key talks between Zelenski and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Umerov has been involved in several diplomatic initiatives, including the "grain deal" and the return of Azov commanders to Ukraine.
The selection of Umerov to this high-level position may signal Kiev's desire to strengthen its international ties, especially with Turkey, and to ensure better command and control of the armed forces in the current conflict."
Also in another article, Russian media points out that in the context of the meeting between Putin and Erdogan, an agreement on the exchange of all prisoners may be reached, stating:
"In the talks scheduled for September 4 between the Presidents of Russia and Turkey - Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan ,one of the key issues will be the issue of the exchange of prisoners of war between Russia and Ukraine. This was reported by Turkish TV channel TRT Haber, citing informed sources.
According to insiders, we can talk about a full exchange of prisoners according to the "All for All" formula.
This implies the release of all Russian and Ukrainian military personnel in captivity.
It is worth noting that the release of Russian military personnel was recently declared in Russia as a humanitarian mission priority.
"If agreements are reached, this will be an important step towards de-escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine and possibly pave the way for further political negotiations," comments an expert .
Turkey's role in these negotiations should not be underestimated, as Ankara has long been a mediator. However, Russia should be wary of Erdogan's proposals."
Conclusion
It is our assessment that Zelensky's dismissal of Oleksiy Reznikov from the post of Ukrainian Minister of Defense and his replacement by Rustem Umerov is a harbinger of serious developments in Moscow-Kiev relations.
We consider it very likely that a "package deal" will be reached at the Putin-Erdoğan meeting, which will provide for the movement of Ukrainian grain in the Black Sea with Russian tolerance, as well as the release-exchange of prisoners between the two sides.
The above is supported by the fact that the new Ukrainian Minister of Defence, Mr Umerov, was actively involved in previous similar agreements with Russia.
Finally, the fact that the new Ukrainian Minister of Defense Umerov is a Crimean Tatar and a Sunni Muslim, suggests a further attempt by Zelensky to establish a political-military rapprochement and cooperation with Turkey, while at the same time "winking" at Muslim countries, especially in Africa, which need Ukrainian grain for their survival.
In addition to the above, we expect greater Ukrainian-Turkish cooperation in the field of the war industry, which we must monitor closely.
