As the war in Ukraine rages, the West, amid contradictions and setbacks, has finally decided to reinforce the Ukrainian Armed Forces with modern tanks, but with small numbers.
Specifically, USA President Joe Biden announced on Wednesday that 31 Abrams tanks will be given to Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said his country will send 14 Leopard 2 tanks, while last week British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak approved the mission of 14 Challenger-2 tanks.
That brings the total number of Western tanks Ukraine has received so far to 59, a far cry from the 300 Volodymyr Zelensky said he would need to push Russia off his country's soil.
However, one question that worries analysts worldwide is whether Russian military operations in Ukraine could end before the arrival of the US Abrams, German Leopard and British Challenger tanks.
International media tries to answer this question with an article, the main points of which are the following:
Russia "seems" to be ready
"Reactions from Russia regarding the supply of modern Western tanks to Ukraine have been relatively calm, as neither the political nor the military leadership has expressed concern, thus showing confidence that the heavy weapons do not pose a significant threat.
Even Western analysts largely agree that tanks will not be able to turn the tide on the battlefield.
Moscow will try to stabilize its positions at Bakhmut (Artemovsk), Soledar and Zaporizhzhia until the tanks arrive in Ukraine.
It has fielded T-90M 'Provy' (Breakthrough) tanks, which have been praised by its Ukrainian rivals, and has other means such as a large stockpile of artillery, helicopters and aircraft to support its ground operations.
Moscow also appointed its Chief of Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, Commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, moving him from his previous post in anticipation of a "tank war" breaking out in Ukraine.
Gerasimov is a career armored officer and the most senior of all Officers in the Russian ground forces.
Experts in Telegram groups report that President Putin would prefer to end the war by capturing the targeted areas before Western tanks reach the battlefield and declare an end to the Special Military Operation (SMO), even if he has the military capability to counter them. Efficiently .
The eventual destruction of Western tanks would embarrass the USA and Germany, setting off a retaliatory cycle of military aid that would perpetuate the conflict.
The statements of the USA Secretary of State
"Putin expected Europe and the United States to weaken our resolve. He was wrong from the beginning and he continues to be wrong. We are also giving Ukraine the necessary parts and equipment to maintain these tanks in battle.
It is about helping Ukraine defend and protect Ukrainian land. It is not an aggressive threat to Russia," Biden told cameras at the White House in the presence of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
The variant that will be sent to Ukraine, either the M1A1 or the M1A2, has not been determined. The latest package will also include armored vehicles and ammunition, the number of which is also unknown.
However, the 14 German Leopard-2s will be the Leopard-2A6 variant, according to Der Spiegel, and are likely to come from the Bundeswehr (German Army) fleet.
Official approval will also be given to other European and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries to transfer their Leopard tanks, since Berlin's sanction is required for the re-export of weapons it has developed.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said the first tanks from Germany should be in Ukraine in three months and that training of Ukrainian crews in Germany should start "soon".
As German media have previously claimed, citing German Defense Ministry figures, as of May 22, the Bundeswehr had 312 Leopard-2 main battle tanks, including 212 in service, 99 under repair or upgrade to the Leopard 2A7V variant, while one was due to be decommissioned.
The USA Department of Defense (DoD) said the tanks will be provided as part of the Ukraine Security Initiative (USAI), meaning the weapons will not come from the US military's stockpile but from the manufacturer.
That means it will be a few months before Abrams arrives in Ukraine.
Russia is likely to seek to seize the remaining pieces of territory in the breakaway regions in the Donbass and the south and prevent the war from escalating.
The Biden administration is not sending any readily available tanks from its stockpile, while also aiming not to deplete its stockpile of ammunition.
It also suggests a reluctance not to provoke Moscow with a large aid package to Ukraine, but rather with small incremental doses that meet its goals, in order to avoid spreading the war to Europe while strategically confronting Moscow.
Meanwhile, the Canadian press quoted a senior government official as saying the government is considering providing Ukraine with four or five Leopard 2 tanks from the Canadian Forces, but no final decision has yet been made.
Canada has 20 Leopard 2A6M CANs, 20 Leopard 2A4M CANs and 42 Leopard 2A4 CANs."
What is Putin planning?
Our assessment is that the small number of three different Western modern tanks Leopard-2A6, Abrams M1A1 or M1A2 and Challenger-2, which will be given to Ukraine, is not able to change the course of military operations, nor lead to the liberation of Ukrainian territories from the Russians, as Zelensky wishes.
It is our belief that Putin will intensify ground operations in Eastern Ukraine in order to seize all Donbas territory in the next quarter and before Western tanks are integrated into the ranks of the Ukrainian army, while maintaining a defensive posture in Crimea, strengthening fortifications and its defense lines in the Kherson-Crimea direction, which is the only one where the Ukrainian Armed Forces have the possibility of launching a large-scale attack.
Then the Russian President will unilaterally declare the end of military operations in Ukraine, giving the initiative to the movements in Ukraine and the West to decide whether to negotiate based on the reality on the ground the end of the war, which is unlikely, or to continue on their own but the military operations are their fault.
With the reinforcement of the Russian forces with the thousands of reservists they are training, the Russian President estimates that it will be easy to repulse the Ukrainian attacks, at which point the operations and the rate of advance of the Ukrainians will come to a halt, consolidating the line of a stationary front.
From then on his options are two. Either he is satisfied with what he has captured, Donbass, Sea of Azov, Mariupol, Crimea, Zaporozhye, probably the most likely, or he continues to occupy Ukraine, risking being dragged into a long war and sanctions against his economy, which he does not want.
