With a constant echo of the failed Ukrainian counter-offensive and the fatigue of the West, Vladimir Putin continues to proclaim that Russia's war aims in Ukraine remain unchanged.
He asserted the same last Tuesday before his generals, boasting that Ukraine is in such dire straits that Russian troops are "doing whatever they want".
Despite the public 'lionisation', however, the Kremlin is signalling through behind-the-scenes diplomacy its interest in reaching an agreement to end the war.
According to a New York Times report, since last September, the Russian president has reportedly appeared, through intermediaries, to be open to a ceasefire that would "freeze" fighting along the firing line, according to two former Russian officials close to the Kremlin, as well as foreign officials who have become recipients of Putin's "message".
Indeed, according to US officials, the Russian leader had made a similar "opening" for a possible ceasefire agreement a year ago, in the fall of 2022. As the same sources reveal, this message was sent behind the scenes and "quietly" after a key Ukrainian victory in the northeast of the country that had caused Putin's discomfort.
Ukraine: Putin open to the possibility of a ceasefire ... if he keeps what he won
"Vladimir Putin's repeated interest in a ceasefire is an example of how opportunism and improvisation have defined his approach to war behind closed doors. Dozens of interviews with Russians who know him well and with foreign officials who have insight into the inner workings of the Kremlin present a leader who is maneuvering to reduce risks and keep more options open in a war that has lasted longer than expected. Despite his fiery public rhetoric, privately Putin conveys his desire to declare victory and move on," the paper notes.
The crucial condition and a 'thorn'
Although publicly Putin sticks to aggressive rhetoric, US officials note a shift in his approach, noting that he no longer demands the departure of the Zelensky government. According to the same sources, the ceasefire Putin is promoting would provide for a sovereign Ukraine with Kiev as its capital, but would keep the currently Russian-occupied territories - accounting for about 20 percent of all Ukrainian territory - under Russian control. Putin, the Americans say, is open to such an agreement, although he is waiting for a more concrete proposal.
"They (the Russians) say: 'We are ready to enter into ceasefire negotiations'. They want to stay where they are on the battlefield," said a senior foreign official who met with Kremlin officials in the fall.
"They are really willing to stop at the positions where the Russian army is today. He is not willing to back down even one step," one of the Russian former senior officials confirmed to the New York Times, conveying a message he said the Kremlin is quietly sending.
Ukraine: Putin open to the possibility of a cease-fire ... if he keeps what he won-2
A Russian air force Ka-52 helicopter fires rockets at a target at an unknown location in Ukraine. - Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP
One potential sticking point in a possible deal could arise from Putin's demand that Ukraine remain outside NATO. However, as one of the former Russian officials argues, a disagreement on the issue would not be a catalyst for any negotiations, as the North Atlantic alliance is not expected to immediately accept Ukraine into its ranks.
The contextual factors
"In the last 16 months, before reaching his current state of loose confidence, Putin has had to endure multiple humiliations - embarrassing concessions and a mutiny by a once-friendly warlord. All the while, he has waged a war with hundreds of thousands dead or maimed, while contradictions have become a hallmark of his administration," the New York Times article comments.
Officials - current and former, Russian and foreign - who spoke to the NYT attribute the timing of a potential ceasefire agreement to a number of factors.
On the one hand, the situation on the battlefield, which appears to have long since reached a stalemate
On the other hand, the meagre military results of the long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive
Then there is the fatigue that the West is showing in the face of the 'long-simmering' conflict, with any further financial and military support becoming a cause of more rifts and divisions
And finally, the "distraction" of Gaza, the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas which many believe has diverted world attention from the Ukraine crisis
The developments are believed to have been favoured, at the end of the summer, by the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin in a plane crash.
The Russian elections are a milestone
According to the NYT, Putin's message is being conveyed through multiple diplomatic channels - through foreign governments with ties to both the United States and Russia, among others. According to U.S. officials, Russian envoys have been talking informally with foreign interlocutors about the outline of a possible deal Putin would accept.
Some analysts argue that Putin is benefiting from a long war, seeking to delay any negotiations until the eventual re-election of Donald Trump - the front-runner for the Republican nomination - in the 2024 presidential election. However, former Russian officials note that Putin would prefer an earlier deal.
As they point out, Putin's propaganda could easily portray this agreement as a victory, with Russia celebrating the acquired land corridor to Crimea.
According to one of the sources cited by the NYT, the ideal time to conclude a deal would be before the March presidential elections in Russia.
