Elections in Turkey are less than a month away. Polls vary, but many show President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has ruled the country for two decades, losing.
However, the chances of Erdogan resigning are zero to none. Erdogan sees himself, quite literally, as having received a mission from God. "I am the servant of sharia," he once said. Power has gone to his head and his ideology has distorted it. The idea that ordinary people whom he considers inferior to him could oust him in a democratic election has not even occurred to him.
Article by Michael Rubin for washingtonexaminer.com
The United States and the West must be prepared
Consider this scenario: Either in the first round of voting on May 14 or, if no candidate exceeds 50%, then during a runoff on May 28, opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu will score a narrow victory .
Commentators explain how, despite Erdogan's effort, inflation and economic mismanagement have led many in the conservative business community to abandon him.
Kilicdaroglu may lack charisma, but after decades of Erdogan, Turks have come to the conclusion that boring could be good. While Kurds are usually hostile to the Republican People's Party because of its historical complicity in their repression, they kept their hatred and voted for Kilicdaroglu.
Kurds' anger and disgust at Erdogan's attack on their countrymen in Syria turned their antipathy toward the CHP. Imprisoned Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas said there is hope for a comprehensive peace but it will happen in a post-Erdogan era in Turkey.
At midnight, however, as Turks from Diyarbakır to Istanbul take to the streets to celebrate a new chance at democracy, Erdogan appears on television to claim victory.
The poll workers who collected the votes were supporters of rival theologian Fethullah Gulen, Erdogan says. At 7 a.m. the next day, three workers appear on television, handcuffed against the background of the Turkish flag, confessing their role.
Later that day, Turkish state media reported phone calls or statements from the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan and Pakistan congratulating Erdogan on his re-election. Europe is silent with the exception of Viktor Orbán in Hungary, who also congratulates Erdogan.
In central Istanbul, anti-government protests are erupting in Taksim, a stone's throw from where the Gezi Park protests erupted a decade ago. Some protesters wave Turkish flags and portraits of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.
Others wave rainbow flags and hold photos of Kilicdaroglu. MAT policemen gather in the alleys along the square. Soon, tear gas is falling all over the area.
The silence from Brussels and Washington infuriates Erdogan. Supporters and rent-a-mobs gather outside the US consulate in Istanbul and the US embassy in Ankara, Turkey. Rumors spread through pro-Erdogan social media that US military personnel at Incirlik Air Base helped manipulate the results.
Mobs soon surround the base, demanding American blood. Just outside of Istanbul, someone paints a large red crescent at the Chalkis Theological School. Within a week, security forces arrest Kilicdaroglu and imprison the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara on trumped-up charges of involvement in what Erdogan is beginning to call a 2023 coup.
As Erdogan clings to power, cracks are beginning to appear. Germany, ever fearful that Erdogan might incite the Turkish diaspora to violence, secretly authorizes its ambassador to meet Erdogan's ministers, if not publicly Erdogan himself. In Washington, many think tanks refuse to take a clear position for fear of losing access to Turkey. A Hudson Institute panel suggests that Erdogan may be right and, regardless, Turkey is too important to NATO to sacrifice over a disputed vote.
As Secretary of State Anthony Blinken expresses serious concern about election integrity and calls for Kilicdaroglu's release from prison, photographers later capture a smiling President Joe Biden talking with Erdogan at the July 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania .
Back to the present: Turkey does not have a democracy and Erdogan is not a democrat. He will cheat and try to turn a loss into a win. The question for the White House is whether it is prepared.
