Do they know something in Turkey for sure that we don't know in Greece, but is it a fact that most of us see it coming?
Turkey's largest and most pro-government think tank, SETA, referring to the development of relations between Greece and Turkey, speaks of... "their growing cooperation in the energy sector of the Eastern Mediterranean" which is even "going to positively affect Turkey-Europe relations".
In its introduction SETA states: "Turkey's strategic environment will be characterized by dynamism and diversity, culminating in a somewhat restrictive regional atmosphere that ultimately poses challenges to Turkey's new regional and international orientation. There are crises that surround Turkey's region geographically, but the geopolitical implications and meaning of each varies.
In this latest edition of the SETA Security Radar, we delve into the major events that have shaped Turkish foreign, security and defense policies throughout 2023. Our analysis focuses on the interactive aspects of Turkey's evolving strategic environment. By carefully examining the key dynamics in 2023, we aim to predict the course of Turkey's foreign policy in 2024."
Specifically regarding Turkey's relations with Europe, the Turkish think tank notes:
"As far as Turkey-Europe relations are concerned, 2024 is expected to continue the tone set in 2023. The European Union dimension may not witness a revival, but the post-election atmosphere is likely to persist. For years now, relations have fallen prey to politicization, titillation, and a showdown in relations.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine exerts a significant influence on Turkey-Europe relations, requiring a strategic approach from Turkey given the uncertainties of the conflict's trajectory. While security concerns, particularly migration, reinforce the rationale for cooperation, economic interdependence suggests a stable Turkey-Europe relationship in 2024."
Up to this point it is pretty much expected...yet when it comes time for Turkey's "think tank" to mention Greek-Turkish relations it starts by saying: "Reconciliation between Turkey and Greece and their growing cooperation in the energy sector in the Eastern Mediterranean is going to positively affect Turkey-Europe relations."
He goes on to stress: "It is important to note that the nature of bilateral relations between Turkey and Greece has changed, thanks to ongoing normalization efforts. It is safe to say that Turkey-Greece relations are now a foreign policy issue rather than a geopolitical one. The latter was the decisive force in Turkey-Greece relations in recent years, before the February earthquakes in Turkey."
"Regarding the Eastern Mediterranean," SETA adds, "there are promising signs, particularly with the improvement of relations between Turkey and Greece. This improvement
in relations is likely to be viewed positively in Washington, which prefers to avoid conflict in the region. This positive development in Turkey-Greece relations is expected to have a favorable impact on the broader bilateral dynamic - including here with respect to the U.S. Congress."
Conclusions are yours...
