In a recent article we referred to US "naval diplomacy" with Turkey, in an effort to re-engage the two countries, and to the recent visit of a bipartisan group of US Congressmen, consisting of Joe Wilson (R-SC), Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) and Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.). ), who met with Turkish Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Fuat Oktay in Ankara to discuss ways to make progress on the Biden administration's plan to sell $20 billion worth of F-16 fighter jets and upgrade kits to upgrade Turkey's air force.
The "visits" by US officials to Turkey appear to be continuing , as according to an article in Turkey's state-run Anadolu news agency, "Senior US diplomat to travel to Turkey to discuss arms control and security," which noted:
"A senior U.S. diplomat will travel to Turkey next week to meet with Turkish Foreign Ministry and Defense Ministry officials to discuss arms control and security issues, the State Department said Thursday.
The State Department said in a statement that Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control, Verification and Compliance Mallory Stewart will travel to Jerusalem and Ankara between September 4 and 9.
"In Ankara, Assistant Secretary Stewart will meet with State Department and Department of Defense officials on strategic stability, risk reduction, and current arms control and security issues," the statement said.
Stewart will also travel to Jerusalem, where she will meet with Israeli Foreign Ministry officials for discussions on "strategic stability, multilateral arms control, the responsible uses of artificial intelligence, and space security," the statement said."
Relations between Ankara and Washington have been strained in recent years over a number of issues, including US support for the YPG/PKK in Syria and disagreements over Turkey's purchase of Russia's S-400 air defense system and Washington's sanctions on Ankara.
In 2019 under then-President Donald Trump, the US expelled Turkey from the F-35 fighter aircraft program over Ankara's purchase of the S-400 system.
Ankara requested F-16 fighter jets and modernization kits from Washington in October 2021, which is awaiting approval from the US Congress. The deal will include the sale of 40 jets as well as modernization kits for 79 fighter jets already in the Turkish Air Force's inventory."
The mission of the US Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance (AVC)
The Office of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance (AVC) is responsible for preventing conflict and enhancing strategic stability using tools such as arms control treaties, other international agreements, and transparency and confidence-building measures.
The AVC builds cooperation among allies and partners to control the threat posed by weapons of mass destruction, their means of delivery, space and cyber capabilities, and conventional weapons.
AVC works tirelessly to strengthen current global arms control and transparency measures, increase government-level support for verification activities and maintain military transparency in Europe.
AVC is committed to working intensively to develop strategic engagement for international security, working with U.S. allies and other organizations to develop missile defense capabilities for international missile defense cooperation and to promote U.S. security in space.
The U.S. Assistant Secretary of State
Mallory Stewart is the Assistant Secretary for the Office of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance (AVC) at the U.S. Department of State.
She joined the AVC in 2022 after serving as Special Assistant to President Biden and Senior Director for Arms Control, Disarmament and Nonproliferation at the National Security Council since January 2021.
Prior to joining the NSC, she was Senior Director for Global Nuclear Security and Nonproliferation at the Center for Global Security and Cooperation at Sandia National Laboratories.
While at Sandia, she helped lead Sandia's Cooperative Monitoring Center in its efforts to facilitate scientific engagement for global security.
From 2015 to 2017, Ms. Stewart was Deputy Assistant Secretary for Emerging Security Challenges and Defense Policy at AVC.
In this role, she oversaw the Office of Emerging Security Challenges and the Office of Chemical and Biological Weapons Affairs.
Prior to that, Ms. Stewart was an attorney in the Office of Legal Counsel at the Department of State beginning in 2002. During that time, she worked on numerous legal issues related to nonproliferation sanctions, weapons of mass destruction and conventional arms control, and in the Office of Nonproliferation and Arms Control.
He also served in the Office of Treaty Affairs and represented the United States against Iran.
Ms. Stewart was the State Department attorney on the U.S. delegation that negotiated the Ballistic Missile Agreements with Poland and Romania and was the lead attorney in 2013 between the U.S.-Russian , for the Syrian Chemical Weapons Elimination Framework. For her work on this issue, Ms. Stewart received the 2014 Secretary of State's Award of Excellence in International Security Affairs.
Ms. Stewart has also worked as a non-tenured associate at the Stimson Center, an adjunct assistant professor at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, and as an associate at the law firm of Sullivan & Cromwell.
She holds an A.B. from Harvard College and a B.A. from Stanford Law School.
Conclusion
From the above, we believe that the upcoming visit of US Assistant Secretary of State Mallory Stewart to Turkey , will not simply involve discussions with Turkish officials from the State Department and the Ministry of Defense on strategic stability, risk reduction and current arms control and security issues, but also to initiate a thorough compliance review of Turkey's compliance with respect to the threat posed by weapons of mass destruction, their means of delivery, space and cyber capabilities, and conventional weapons.
The verification will be carried out using the Arms Control Treaties and other international agreements to which Turkey is a signatory, but also on the basis of the transparency and confidence-building measures governing the relationship between allied states.
We believe that the US is "screening" Turkey for conventional arms control, since its defence industry cannot produce weapons, systems and ammunition uncontrolled, subject to the commitments undertaken by the country on the basis of its participation in international treaties, while it seems unlikely that due to Akkuyu and Erdoğan's insistence on acquiring nuclear weapons, there will be a similar control.
Our assessment is that the above controls on Turkey by the US are a prerequisite for the Biden administration to give Erdogan the 40 F-16 BLOCK-70 and the modernization kits for 79 warplanes already in the Turkish Air Force's inventory, but also for Turkey to receive financial aid from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), whose main financier is Washington.
