The recent re-election of Erdogan to the Presidential office in Turkey has been the beginning of discussions and analyses, whether he will continue his policy of distancing himself from the West and embracing Russia and in relation to Greek-Turkish relations, if and for how long things will continue to it is calm in the Aegean from the Turkish side, a policy that Ankara has been following since the earthquakes until today.
Related to the above is a Turkish media article, titled "Turkey cancels the Deniz Kurdu exercise, Greece cancels the Storm exercise", in which the following is highlighted:
"Turkey and Greece have decided to mutually cancel their above scheduled naval exercises.
This is another important mutual step taken for the development of Turkey-Greece relations with a positive agenda.
While Greece is conducting a small-scale training instead of the "Storm" exercise it conducts every year, the Turkish Armed Forces (TFF) will also conduct regular training instead of the "Deniz Kurdu" Exercise.
According to information received from defense and security sources, instead of Exercise "Storm", which is conducted by Greece every year in May-June and covers the entire Aegean, small-scale activities are carried out to maintain training standards.
The Turkish Ministry of National Defense then made arrangements for the planned activities of the Naval Forces Command.
In the first week of June every year regular trainings will be held according to the principles of international relations and reciprocity, instead of the "Deniz Kurdu" exercise involving thousands of personnel with more than 200 weapons? systems and means, including surface ships, submarines, fighter aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles.
The Minister of National Defense, Hulusi Akar, in his assessments of the recent developments in the relations between the two countries, stated that Turkey does not have an aggressive attitude towards any of its neighbors, stating:
"We are in favor of solving problems through dialogue in peaceful ways and methods within the framework of international law and good neighborly relations. We say that the Aegean should be a sea of friendship, the wealth of both sides should be shared fairly, they should live in safety and happiness . There is a moratorium between the two countries against conducting drills during the tourist season. We are ready to extend it," he said.
On the other hand, Greek Defense Minister Nikolaos Panagiotopoulos visited Hatay at the beginning of April at the invitation of Minister Akar after the earthquakes of February 6, which were described as the "disaster of the century".
It was announced that the development was agreed.
The DENİZKURDU-I and II/2023 exercise was scheduled to take place between June 1-4, 2023 and June 6-12, 2023.
Erdogan may be triumphant about being re-elected, but he has to face, and even immediately, the huge problem of the Turkish economy.
It is no coincidence that he reported 2 days before the May 28 election on CNN Turk, where he talked about the financial aid he received and will receive from the Gulf countries, saying: "After the elections on Sunday, you will see how they will come the leaders here and how I will visit them to show them our gratitude”.
Ankara has secured about $28 billion in currency swap deals in recent years with the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, China and South Korea, most of which is believed to be in Turkish central bank reserves.
In general, Erdogan is betting on financial aid that will come from the Gulf countries, while it is very likely that he will also ask for financial aid-reinforcement from the EU.
We see this possibility as very likely, since Erdogan will think that the 2016 deal with Brussels, which gave Ankara €6 billion in return for stopping migrants from crossing its territory into the EU, could happen renegotiation, in an effort to raise money to relieve his country's ailing economy.
After all, the developments in Syria, with the acceptance of Assad by the Arab countries and the reintegration of his country into the "Arab League", combined with the pre-election announcements of Erdogan to repatriate millions of Syrian immigrants living in Turkey back to their country, may act as Turkey's pressure on the EU to instrumentalize immigration and demand more financial funds.
Finally, we have the tourist season ahead of us which can help the faltering Turkish economy, bringing foreign currency to Turkey, which it desperately needs.
Finally, Turkey wants to "sell" to the US that the situation with Greece is steadily de-escalating, in order to convince Washington to sell it 40 F-16 BPLOCK-70 and 80 modernization kits to upgrade an equal number of non-aging F -16 of the air force.
However, let's not laugh, the Turkish positions and claims have not differed in the least in relation to our country, keeping on the table all its claims against us, while Greece recognizes the delimitation of the continental shelf and the EEZ as the only us difference in Aegean and SE Mediterranean.
Also the recent Parliamentary and Presidential elections showed Nationalism as a big winner, since the Nationalist parties gathered a percentage of 25%, showing that 1 in 4 Turkish voters is an extreme Nationalist.
The bad thing for Greece is the MHP of the gray wolves of Bahtceli and the IYI party of Aksener, they are the main partners for Erdogan and Kilinztaroglu in government and opposition respectively.
Following these, the position of the Turkish President and the Turkish Parliament is expected to be particularly harsh, unyielding and extremely aggressive in Greek-Turkish relations.
Finally, a clear indication of the Greek-Turkish course is the continuous inclusion of new weapon systems, means and ammunition in the TED arsenal, by the Turkish defense industry, which has intensified its efforts.
Our assessment is that for all these reasons Erdogan will not take any aggressive action in the Aegean at this stage and until the end of the tourist season, however after this period we expect a return of tension in the Aegean with Turkish fault. We are talking about a temporary calm before the storm.
