It is known that the US is taking a tough stance on the F-16 BLOCK 70 purchase, not selling them so far, mainly thanks to the strong resistance of the US Congress and Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Bob Menendez.
At the same time, the repeat Presidential elections of May 28 are approaching in Turkey, with Erdogan now in the driver's seat, after his victory in the Parliamentary elections.
Our assessment is that in the event of Erdoğan's victory, which is most likely, the US will initially take a wait-and-see attitude in order to adjust its foreign policy regarding Turkey, including whether or not to sell F-16s to it. depending on the movements of the newly elected Turkish President.
However, a plan seems to be in the works, concerning Turkey's purchase of F-16 BLOCK-70s from the USA, according to which it is envisaged to simultaneously grant used Turkish F-16s to Ukraine.
Specifically, according to a relevant Turkish media article, it is reported that Ukraine wants Turkish F-16s, asking European countries to encourage Turkey to send F-16 fighter jets to it.
He also points out that the Ukraine-Russia war, which began with great intensity on February 24, 2022 after Russia's attacks, continues in its 15th month. Ukraine receives serious equipment, intelligence and training support from NATO member countries.
Finally, Ukraine requested F-16 Fighting Falcons, NATO's main fighter jet.
According to Politico's information based on Ukrainian Defense Ministry officials, the UK has reportedly asked Italy, France and Germany to encourage Turkey and the United States to supply F-16s to Ukraine.
On the other hand, Ukrainian media reported that Ukrainian pilots have gone to the UK for F-16 training. However, there is no F-16 Fighting Falcon in the RAF inventory.
It is emphasized that the aircraft will be shipped to the country from the US or used F-16s will be procured from the UK market.
However, it seems unlikely that Turkey will send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.
It is recalled that there are approximately 235 F-16 Block 30/40/50/50+ fighter jets in the Turkish Air Force's inventory.
On the other hand, Turkey has submitted a request to buy 40 F-16 Block 70 fighter jets and 79 modernization kits from the US. Currently, Turkey is a country in need of warplanes.
Dozens of Bayraktar TB2 SİHA sent to Ukraine by the Turkish manufacturer SİHA BAYKAR made their mark on the battlefield in favor of Ukraine.
BAYKAR made rapid deliveries of Bayraktar TB2s to Ukraine during the war, both increasing its current production capacity and at the expense of disrupting order schedules.
The plan to send Turkish F-16s to Ukraine via Great Britain aims to disrupt the excellent Russian-Turkish relations, since Putin will be displeased by such a development, while pulling Turkey towards the West.
At the same time, it will strengthen the Turkish request for the purchase of the F-16 BLOCK-70 from the USA, since Turkey, as a NATO member state, will have granted its used aircraft to Ukraine, strengthening it, in which case it will reasonably request the strengthening of the of the Air Force with the aforementioned purchase.
The success or failure of the above plan will depend on the attitude of the new Turkish President who will be elected in a few days.
However, based on the victory performance, it seems that Erdogan is almost certain to prevail, so in our estimation, we believe that he will continue his pro-Russian policy, not adopting the above plan.
However, because Erdogan always operates on the basis of an oriental bargain in all matters, and because he has proven to be unpredictable in the past, it remains to be seen how the whole venture will play out in practice.
