Interview with Evangelos D. Kokkinos
In an exclusive interview with Pentapostagma, Dr. Michael Rubin, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where he specializes in Iran, Turkey, and the broader Middle East and a former Pentagon official, warns that Turkey seeks conflict and targets energy resources in Greece's EEZ.
"What may protect Greece is that Turkey is more likely to face a serious response if it does attack", he points out and adds that "at the very least, will see a move to redraw maps".
"The threat Turkey poses to Greece, Armenia, and the Syrian Kurds is real" - Dr. Michael Rubin
Commenting on ExxonMobil's announced drilling operations in the Ionian Sea and south-southwest of Crete, Mr. Rubin thinks it is a "positive step" and says "it will focus American attention on the eastern Mediterranean and create greater consequences for Turkey to act on its illegal maritime claims".
Regarding the delivery of F-16s to Turkey, the American expert says that Ankara may seem certain that it will get them, but he has his doubts. He states that "few senators are going to appease Erdogan if it means they will end up with the blood of Turkey’s victims on their hands".
Elaborating on the "salami-slicing" strategy he believes Turkey will attempt to implement in the Aegean, Mr. Rubin wonders what would happen if Turkey occupied a smaller, uninhabited or lightly populated island. "Would Europe and the United States respond, or would smug diplomats call for talks all the while Turkey reinforced the island and established facts on the ground?"
"It is crucial that Greece and its allies be prepared to defend every last centimeter of the Aegean islands" - Dr. Michael Rubin
In the wake of the US midterm elections, Mr. Rubin emphasizes that Turkey's problems in Congress are bipartisan and makes it clear that Turkish influence in Congress is extremely limited. "Turkey is now toxic", he adds.
Finally, assessing the security situation in the wider region in light of the war in Ukraine, the American expert says that "a weak Russia changes the dynamics for the entire region".
"Erdogan may believe he is the new Putin, with even more freedom to act", Mr. Rubin believes and adds that the Turkish President, "has great political instincts, but he is fundamentally a stupid man".
"What Greece and the West must do is defend Greece, Armenia, and the Kurds so that they need not be the victims of Turkey’s coming collapse", he concludes.
The full interview:
- How do you think US-Turkey relations will be affected by the result of the mid-term elections?
Turkey’s problems in Congress are bipartisan. When Namik Tan was Turkey’s ambassador to the United States more than a decade ago, he used to use the numbers of congressmen and senators in the Congressional Turkey Caucus as a metric of Turkey’s influence. At the time, Turkey could claim more than 200 members in the Caucus. Now, they might have one-tenth that number, which is why they have not updated the membership page in four years. Put another way, Turkey is today only slightly more influential in Congress than the Congressional Algae Caucus.
Too often, Erdogan seems to believe that with a new election, he can buy more influence. But, the world isn’t the Atlantic Council and money doesn’t always make everything right. Turkey is now toxic. How many times have groups like the Turkish Heritage Organization been questioned for trying to skirt foreign influence and finance laws? Who wants to be associated with any government that attacks Americans in the center of Washington DC, holds Christian priests hostage, or who, alongside Azerbaijan, gets its friends mired in ethics investigations? Some think tank scholars may buy Turkey’s snake oil but who, outside of those small circles, wants to be associated with a government that embraces Hamas or helps Vladimir Putin bust sanctions?
- Will the Turks finally get the F-16 fighter jets? If so, will their delivery be immediate, with or without conditions regarding Greece?
Turkey seems to think it will, but I have my doubts. Since George W. Bush was U.S. President, Erdogan believed he could make an end run around Congress by leveraging personal relationships in the White House. Law matters in the United States more than Turkey. Erdogan can try to avoid Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Bob Menendez or Senate Armed Service Committee Chairman Jack Reed, but he will not be able to do so. The threat Turkey poses to Greece, Armenia, and the Syrian Kurds is real. Few senators are going to appease Erdogan if it means they will end up with the blood of Turkey’s victims on their hands.
- How do you comment on ExxonMobil's announced drilling operations in the Ionian Sea and southwest of Crete? How do they affect the geopolitics of the region and what is the impact on the energy crisis/transition in the long term?
I wish I could say in general that oil companies did not influence policy but they do. Money matters. I doubt, for example, that the United Kingdom would be so much in the grasp of Azerbaijan if it were not for British Petroleum’s business operations in that authoritarian state. In this case, however, ExxonMobil’s investment in the Ionian Sea is a positive step. It will focus American attention on the eastern Mediterranean and create greater consequences for Turkey to act on its illegal maritime claims.
- In a recent article you compared the security situation of Greece with that of Taiwan and Armenia, regarding the next steps of military aggression by revisionist actors, such as Turkey, China and Azerbaijan. What is the "salami-slicing" you wrote about and how it will be implemented in Greece?
Salami-slicing was a term analysts have long used to describe China’s strategy in the South China Sea. It means that rather than stage an all-out attack to win its aims, a country acts in slow motion and in a step-by-step fashion in order to prevent a military response. If the aggressor does it right, then it can acquire everything it seeks without the free world ever coming to the rescue of the victim. In the South China Sea, for example, China took over a few disputed reefs. Over subsequent years, it built bases on these. The Philippines sued China and won a declaration that China’s actions and claims were illegitimate but by then, China had already consolidated control and just declared they would not move. The question then becomes: Could Turkey do the same thing in the Aegean. If Turkey attacked a heavily populated island, there would be an immediate response. But what happens if it occupies a smaller, unpopulated or lightly populated one? Would Europe and the United States respond, or would smug diplomats call for talks all the while Turkey reinforced the island and established facts on the ground? In hindsight, perhaps we should call the strategy Cyprus-slicing rather than salami-slicing since Turkey created the strategy decades before Communist China did.
- Are we moving towards a military conflict between Greece and Turkey? What form will such a war take? Will Greece's allies help militarily or they will settle for a rhetorical/diplomatic punishment?
Yes, I think Turkey wants conflict. The question is whether it will be with Greece, Armenia, or the Syrian Kurds. What may protect Greece is that Turkey is more likely to face a serious response if it does attack. That said, Turkey wants the energy resources which lie in Greece’s exclusive economic zone and so we, at the very least, will see a move to redraw maps. We should take a lesson from Iraq. Many Western diplomats dismissed Saddam’s seriousness when he questioned Kuwait’s legitimacy. They said Saddam’s statements were just empty rhetoric. They were wrong. Sometimes dictators who are presiding over economic collapse mean what they say. At the very least, it is crucial that Greece and its allies be prepared to defend every last centimeter of the Aegean islands.
- Finally, how do the developments in Ukraine affect the security situation in the wider region?
Well, that’s a big question for a final one. I’m a historian so I get paid to predict the past, and I do not know what Russian President Vladimir Putin might do. At the very least, however, a weak Russia changes the dynamics for the entire region. Russia will be far less likely to assert itself and protect its interests against Turkey in countries like Syria, Armenia, Georgia, and even Azerbaijan where, in recent years, the Russian economic footprint has increased tremendously. Erdogan always saw himself as Putin’s equal, an attitude that caused Putin to smack Erdogan down from time to time. It will be harder for Putin to do this now. Erdogan may believe he is the new Putin, with even more freedom to act. Erdogan never got a real college degree. His education was on the streets. He has great political instincts, but he is fundamentally a stupid man. The danger is Erdogan may not learn the lessons Putin has through unbridled aggression and may bring ruin to Turkey in the same matter that Putin has to Russia. What Greece and the West must do is defend Greece, Armenia, and the Kurds so that they need not be the victims of Turkey’s coming collapse.
