The Afghan Taliban has said that it is likely to launch its spring offensive soon in the light of President Joe Biden’s remarks that the US will begin withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan from 1 May 2021 but complete the process only by 9 September. The Taliban had earlier stated that it would attend the Istanbul peace conference which was to begin in Ankara on 16 April 2021 for ten days. They did however state that they would reconsider attending if the conference was held later, clearly indicating that they were waiting for a signal from President Joe Biden on the withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan.
Tragically, it is the Taliban which cannot be trusted to keep its word. They have broken all the tenets of the original Khalilzad-Taliban agreement signed with much fanfare in Doha in February 2020. The Taliban have not respected the existence of a legitimate Afghan government under President Ashraf Ghani and have waged war against the people of Afghanistan causing enormous damage to the country.
The UNAMA in its annual report for 2020 on Afghanistan stated that “For a seventh consecutive year, UNAMA documented more than 3,000 civilians killed in a single year, with Afghanistan remaining among the deadliest places in the world to be a civilian”. The UNAMA report also shows that anti-Government Elements (AGEs) caused the majority of civilian casualties -- 62 per cent in 2020 -- totalling 5,459 casualties – 1,885 killed and 3,574 injured (out of a total of 8,820 casualties, 3,035 killed and 5785 injured in 2020) with the Taliban being responsible for most of these casualties (45 per cent of the total). Therefore, the Taliban speaks with a forked tongue and its only interest is in toppling the elected government and taking control.
Unfortunately, the US as well as several other countries, driven by the Pakistani agenda continue to engage the Taliban in the hope of coming to conclusions. The end-game in any case will be to the advantage of the Taliban. Just how cleverly Pakistan got the Taliban to commit to virtually nothing in the peace deal signed with the US in February last year, is evidenced by the fact that there was no commitment on the side of the Taliban that it would not attack the US troops! As a Brookings Institute Briefing Report written by John Allen (5 March 2020) accurately prophesized, “Without a specific verification and enforcement mechanism, aspirational Taliban commitments will be impossible to address, and local incidents of violence will be chalked-up to rogue elements of the group”.
And this is precisely what happened! Let us now turn to current events. On 14 April 2021, President Joe Biden announced that the US will withdraw all troops from Afghanistan on 1 May 2021 as was agreed to in the February 2020 deal. However, the Taliban responded to this by saying that Biden’s statement was in violation of the Doha deal. The Taliban statement clearly written by the ISI at its HQ in Rawalpindi, states “As this agreement was signed in the presence of United Nations and representatives of numerous world countries and organizations, and is currently being breached by America, it is imperative that all countries and organizations that were witnesses to the signing of this agreement exert pressure on America to implement its commitments and withdraw all forces from Afghanistan by the specified date.” Therefore, the Taliban has indicated that it will not participate in any peace talks “that will make decisions about Afghanistan” till the US completes the withdrawal of troops.
Instead of making efforts to promote peace in Afghanistan, Pakistan’s ISI recently summoned the Taliban’s shadow governors and commanders to plan for a spring offensive, which has been an annual feature and this year was no exception. Normally, the Taliban’s Shura meets in Quetta and the ISI representative there pass on instructions regarding the course of action to the Taliban. Of course, things have changed considerably since the late 1990s when the ISI had full control over the Taliban. Today, the Taliban is not a monolithic organization; however, the ISI does have a handle on the top leadership, including the Taliban personnel in the Doha office. It is also a well-known fact that most, if not all Taliban ‘officials’ travel overseas on Pakistani passports!
The Taliban today is a different organization from the one it was in the 1990s, but in terms of its capacity to gain power and hang on, it has gained in experience and still has the advantage of having the backing of Pakistan. The Taliban has learnt the art of negotiating from a position of strength. This is also a function of the inability of the US to look beyond counter-terrorism and weaken the Taliban from a counter-insurgency perspective. Pakistan took full advantage of this and by creating sanctuaries across the border in Pakistan, provided full and complete support to the Taliban.
The ISI’s deep involvement with the Taliban was recently revealed in a letter by a member of the Taliban who attended the Doha peace talks in February 2020. The letter released (March 2020), shows the ISI using its usual tactic of divide and rule to keep control of the Quetta Shura. It also states that Mullah Baradar, the Doha Office chief of the Taliban received a call from his ISI handler while at a dinner with Qatari officials and told that Lt. Gen. Faiz Hamid and Hassan Khattak should be invited to the signing ceremony. The letter also reveals that Amir Khan Mottaqi, is the main defender of the ISI in the Taliban’s Doha office.
It is thus seen that the Taliban is really a creature of Pakistan’s ISI and is basically an obstructionist organization with no real interest in peace in Afghanistan. The only objective of the Taliban is to gain power and this ties in with Pakistan’s vision of an Afghanistan under its control. While in the present situation, things may not turn out to be as hunky dory as they were in 1996, the possibility of a Taliban takeover post the withdrawal of US troops looms large on the horizon.
