Following the announcement by the Ukrainian Ministry of Transport, which offered NATO the use of Crimean airspace in the midst of a Turkish-American naval exercise, an immediate reaction from the Russian side further escalated the ongoing crisis.
"The worst-case scenario for NATO would be any loss of its aircraft in Crimea. "Russia will consider as a violation of its airspace and aggression, any flight of an Alliance aircraft in the Hersonissos and with this reasoning it will shoot down any foreign aircraft with preemptive attacks", as emphasized by a Russian expert.
"According to Russian analysts, NATO has instructed the Ukrainian ministry to issue the controversial directive and, as a result, there are likely to be incidents and serious challenges in Crimean airspace, which is one of the most protected areas in the world."
"In view of the EASA Flight Safety Newsletter in the Flight Information Area of Simferopol and the lifting of US Federal Aviation Administration restrictions on flights to the Crimean FIR, we propose that this part of the airspace be used for NATO air operations, which involves the transport of troops.
"We hope for NATO's support in monitoring the air situation along the border with Russia," the Ukrainian press service of the Ministry of Infrastructure said in an article.
It is recalled that the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denis Smigal, after a recent meeting with the Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg in Brussels, had stated that his country is moving to expand cooperation with NATO in the Black Sea region.
In addition, a number of joint exercises with the Alliance countries are planned for 2021, including the "Indestructible Resilience" exercises in Odessa.
The most likely scenario is to see short "crises" near Crimea of Ukrainian and NATO aircraft with Russian fighter jets, due to the annexation of the Peninsula by Russia in 2014 and the well-known reactions to the Western embargo.
NATO, as is well known, does not recognize the annexation of Crimea to Russia and constantly calls on it to hand over control of the region to Ukraine.
At the same time, the Alliance expresses its concern about the violation of human rights on the peninsula by the authorities in relation to Ukrainians, Crimean Tatars and other ethnic groups, while Turkey is also involved in the region with currently unknown results.
Moscow, for its part, is preparing for the worst-case scenario and is transporting intel, forces, strategic aircraft and missiles to Crimea in anticipation of possible developments, especially in this region.
