Military experts and analysts, mostly Russians, believe that Ankara could acquire Russian 4 ++ Su-57 fighters by mid-2024, according to an article on the Russian website Avia.Pro.
According to the author of the article, Turkey has the absolute right to complete the first TCG Anadolu aircraft carrier. The Middle East Eye reports that Ankara is likely to operationalize TCG Anadolu this year or next.
The main problem is that Turkey does not have access to American F-35 fighter jets, as the United States expelled it from the program of these aircraft, due to the purchase of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft systems.
That is why analysts in the Russian media claim that if Turkey does not buy fighter jets, either vertical landing gear or fighters that need a small runway to land them, the Turkish aircraft carrier will be essentially a cargo ship.
Ankara has the option of negotiating with Beijing to acquire fifth-generation J-20 fighters. However, Russian analysts say Turkey and China are not in the best of relations, so this is unlikely.
Is it possible for Turkey to get Su-57?
Such a development is very possible, although the chances are not great. We need to look at the current situation in Turkey from different angles - economically and politically.
Turkey is experiencing a serious economic crisis. The prices of basic foodstuffs are constantly rising, while the value of the Turkish lira is declining and wages are not changing. Economists around the world say the Turks are in a severe recession.
Ankara has plans for its own fifth generation fighter. However, the work is so far behind that some Turkish analysts say it is hard to believe it will be a priority for the government. This project has an unsolved problem, especially in the field of the engine required for it. The Turks have also invested a lot of money so far and are really in their infancy.
Some believe that Russia can help Turkey develop the engine. The Turks can expect the Izdelie 30, the engine that will power the Russian Su-57 from 2022. But even if the Izdelie 30 is ready, there is no way this engine will be compatible with the Turkish fighter.
Of course, the following options come with buying a new fighter jet. The F-35 is out of the equation and the Chinese J-20 - too. South Korea, India and Russia remain. The first two countries are making progress. South Korea expects to test the fifth-generation fighter this year, but how many years will it take to prepare the Keroi version for an aircraft carrier?
Russia is the most sensible choice at the moment
Although unlikely to happen, Russia's most sensible choice, especially if the Turkish aircraft carrier is ready this year or next. Indeed, Ankara needs a naval version of a fighter jet.
Moscow may be preparing the Su-57, especially since it has announced that around 2025, Russia will offer an export version of its Su-57E fighter.
If Ankara decides to turn to Moscow, it could mean a redirection of efforts to develop a naval version for the Turks.
Russia specializes in the development of such aircraft. She has a history and experience in this with different versions of its fighters. Russia can also offer a solution to take off from a small deck runway without a catapult, so it is a lesser problem for the Turks.
The United States can reduce the damage
Washington can reduce the damage to the Turks. Of course, suppose Joe Biden's administration decides to improve communication between the two countries. In this case, Washington will not offer the F-35 but will provide another option to Turkey - the F-15EX.
Boeing has recently made significant progress in taking off from a small deck without a catapult, having done so with India.
The F-15EX is not an F-35, but Turkey will not receive a better bid from Washington at this stage. In any case, however, the F-15EX is better than the MiG-29K. At the moment, the F-15EX is many times better than the Su-57E, which does not even exist.
And it would not be a surprise if Ankara placed an order for an F-15EX, or invested more money in Patriot air defense systems, because there is no way Washington can leave these trump cards it currently holds in its hands.
