Expulsion of French envoy to hurt Pakistan politically, financially The civilian government of Pakistan appears to be at its weakest level of administration after its parliament began proceedings on expulsion of French envoy over the demands of a terror outfit. While the fate of the decision Pakistan’s parliament will take is unclear, the development shows Prime Minister Imran Khan has succumbed to the pressure from the hardliner, outlawed Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan (TLP). The development will encourage other radical organisations in the country. And it can be sensed from the latest terror attack on the Chinese Ambassador. In case, the French Ambassador is ordered to leave, there will huge negative repercussions for Pakistan- domestically and internationally. Pakistan was engulfed in violent protests for a week after the TLP leader Saad Rizvi was arrested over the demands of expulsion of the French Ambassador to Pakistan.
Paris will retaliate by banning imports from Pakistan if its envoy is forced to leave the country. And there are solid reasons to believe that. French President Emmanuel Macron has already taken a stand against radicalised Islamists by supporting the magazine Charlie Hebdo’s right to republish cartoons of Prophet Mohammed, which Muslims find offensive. Moreover, Imran Khan has openly been ranting against Macron for insulting Islam.
Pakistan has been the recipient of financial aid from France, which increased significantly in the past few years. It accounted for €100-150 million per annum even as Paris government mulled to increase it to €500 million per annum. However, Pakistan has got the taste of France’s displeasure. French government has already refused to upgrade Mirage fighter jets, air defence system and Agosta 90B class submarines, which were procured by Pakistan.
There may be negative effects on the French aid to the country as well. Image link Pakistan’s bilateral trade with France has been booming in the recent past few years. Spoilt relations with the French will not just lead Pakistan to risk USD 1.1 billion it earns through exports to France 4 but may affect its trade with other European Union (EU) countries. Pakistan’s exports to the EU have seen the increase of 65 percent, from €4.538 billion in 2013 to €7.492 billion in 2019, especially after the Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP) Plus status was offered, which allowed removal of full tariff on 66 percent of product categories.
Thus, Pakistan is at risk of not losing friendly trade terms with France but other 27 EU countries if French Envoy is shown the door. Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry President Shariq Vohra said “France will definitely respond if we expel the French diplomat. It would most likely vote against Pakistan when it sits on the EU board, which will decide Pakistan’s GSP-plus status.” Pakistan Hosiery Manufacturing Association feared Pakistan will lose approximately USD 3.5 billion of annual exports if the GSP-plus status is revoked.
“We may not only lose GSP-plus status with France but the whole 27-nation European Union where we export around a quarter of our total exports or $6 billion of textile goods,” said Javed Bilwani, chief coordinator of the association. Image link Now, the issue of French envoy expulsion has reached parliament, Pakistani leaders are speaking in the favour of strong response to France. The resolution tabled in Pakistani parliament reads “This House demands that a debate should be held to discuss the issue of expelling the French envoy from the country and that all the European countries, especially France, should be apprised of the gravity of this matter.”
Moreover, Imran Khan has urged all Muslim-majority countries to boycott trade with the western world. “When 50 Muslim countries in one voice tell them that if something like this happens in any country, we will go for a trade boycott on them and stop buying their goods,” Khan said. 9 The tactics adopted by Pakistan government however will backfire as the soured relations with France, the EU or the western world will hurt Pakistan the most.
Besides, financial reasons, Pakistan will find it difficult to come out of Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) ‘grey list’ as it will be perceived as a state where policies and governance are influence by terrorist forces. Michael Kugelman, deputy director at think tank Wilson Centre, said Imran Khan must not give in to TLP’s demands will do no good to Pakistan. “The optics of tabling a resolution calling for the expulsion of the French ambassador are not good for Islamabad, as it’s essentially caving in to the TLP’s core demand,” he said.
