2024 seems to have started badly for the "neighbours", with a prominent Turkish geologist warning of a strong earthquake that will hit his country in the coming months, pointing out that the earth's crust is on the verge of rupturing.
Famous Turkish seismologist warns of a major earthquake in his country in the coming months
According to Professor Ogun Ahmet Arkan, a famous geophysicist from Turkey, there is an imminent risk of a strong earthquake in the region, Israeli media reports, noting:
Although he cannot pinpoint the exact location, he claims it could happen in the Anatolia region of Turkey by spring.
The tension in this region is steadily increasing and if it reaches its peak, it could lead to a rupture of the Earth's crust, as reported by Al-Arabiya.
Professor Arkan stresses that this earthquake could strike without warning, even if no strong seismic activities have preceded it in the region.
He urges the Turkish authorities to take precautionary measures to minimize possible damage.
Possible 7 magnitude earthquake in Anatolia before spring
In an interview with Haber Global TV, he said, "I think it is possible that we will witness an earthquake before spring, but its exact location remains uncertain. Unfortunately, signs point to an increasing likelihood, particularly in Anatolia."
The thickness of the Earth's crust in this risk area is about 43 km. As it stands today, the upper crust is resisting rupture. However, if the pressure reaches a critical point, a seismic event of about 7 on the Richter scale is expected.
It is important to note that a devastating earthquake struck southern Turkey in February last year, claiming the lives of more than 50,000 people. This serves as a stark reminder of the potential consequences and the need for precautionary measures to mitigate the impact of future earthquake events."
The warnings of the renowned Greek Professor of Geology Lekka
In a recent article on the occasion of the 5.1 Richter earthquake that had its epicentre south of Istanbul near Prusa and was particularly felt mainly on the Asian side of the metropolis, in Prusa and the surrounding areas, we had referred to the assessment of the renowned Greek Professor of Geology Lekka, who pointed out:
"It is of particular importance mainly for the Istanbul Fault not for Greece, said Efthymis Lekkas, President of the OASP and Professor of Natural Disaster Management, speaking to ERT. "It does not mean that every earthquake that happens near Istanbul will affect Greece."
"When the Istanbul fault will be activated, we will see the characteristics to see if it will affect the Greek area," he said.
"We cannot yet assess whether it is the main earthquake or not - Ready to break the Anatolian fault."
The Turks have prepared an evacuation plan for Istanbul
Turkey is preparing for the possibility of a 7.5 magnitude earthquake on the Richter scale, considered likely to hit Istanbul, which aims to reduce loss of life by speeding up the evacuation of homes in a possible 7.5 magnitude quake.
Thousands of homes are expected to be evacuated in such a case, according to the new plan created by the Turkish Ministry of Interior, which foresees:
"Disaster victims who want to go to their provinces or hometowns will be transported to the designated areas by sea, air, land and rail vehicles.
In case of a possible disaster, citizens will be sent to designated points on the eastern and European sides of Istanbul by cars.
Disabled citizens will be given priority, as well as children, elderly and women.
The Istanbul Planning Agency (IPA) estimates that at least 48,000 buildings will be severely damaged in a 7.5 magnitude earthquake, while another 194,000 will record at least medium severity damage.
How will US-Turkey relations and Greek-Turkish relations be affected?
The recent "Declaration of Friendship and Good Neighborliness" between Greece and Turkey, as well as the agreements signed between the relevant ministries for the joint response to natural disasters, combined with the positive climate in our relations, argue in favor of Greece offering a great deal of assistance to the tested Turkish people in the event of a new major earthquake in their country.
So our assessment is that we will see an even greater offer of assistance from our country to Turkey in relation to the 2023 earthquakes.
However, it is known that the Turkish economy is in trouble and that in order to cope with any new huge natural disaster, funds will be needed, which will come from foreign aid and from the redirection of financial resources from the country's budget.
Turkey will have to heal its wounds again from the new huge disaster and for this it will need the help of the US-EU.
This will have the effect of reducing the aggressive rhetoric of Erdogan and his ministers against the West in the next period of time, contributing to a climate of détente between Turkey and its NATO 'allies'.
At the same time, as a consequence of the necessity of rerouting financial resources from Turkey's budget to relieve the suffering Turkish people, the arms programs of the country's defense industry will be set back in time.
In other words, a new destructive earthquake in the neighbouring country, which we emphatically emphasise that we are against, our assessment is that it will result in a greater shift of Turkey towards the West and the USA and an even greater improvement in relations with our country, but not to the point of the Turks abandoning their aggressive ambitions against our islands in the Aegean and serving the ideology of the "Blue Homeland".
These existed, exist and will exist.
